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2026 General Election: Governor State of Nevada
Editor's Note: Danielle Ford and Joe Lombardo didn't respond to requests to participate. Aaron Ford. Occupation: Nevada Attorney General.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026
Nevada Governor 2026
- Polymarket
- 53.5%
- Kalshi
- 54.5%
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +1.3
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Nevada Governor.
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Ford seeks to upset Lombardo, become Nevada’s first Black governor
Among the stack of lawsuits Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford has filed in his two terms is one of particular significance to the state and its bread-and-butter gambling industry – the effort to keep prediction markets…
Nevada Current
Lombardo -
Seven subpoenas engulf Nevada election chief in key midterm battle
Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here.
ReutersLombardo -
Obama urges Nevadans to elect Attorney General Aaron Ford as governor in new video
“As Attorney General, Aaron has gone to bat for Nevadans, helping bring down violent crime, holding drug companies accountable, and taking on utility companies over unfair electric bills,” Obama said.
KRNV
Ford -
Democrats and ‘affordability’ | LETTER | Letters
LETTER: Voting intelligentlyLETTER: Donald Trump’s latest election panderLETTER: Higher prescription costsLETTER: Time to revisit HillaryCare
Las Vegas Review JournalFord -
Endorsements for the midterm election in Southern Nevada
Las Vegas WeeklyLombardoFord
Black
Monroe-Moreno
More coverage 6
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Nevada's next budget could see at least $1 billion boost. Here's why.
Although the Forum did not make any final budget decisions Wednesday, it did approve another body's projections for minor revenue sources.
The Nevada IndependentLombardo -
President Trump holds rally outside Las Vegas; Democrats issue response ahead of midterm election
“They forget, we gave you a safe border,” Trump said. “The border was so bad, I probably won on the border.”
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Is the Iran war driving up gas prices in Nevada?
Fossil fuels are the world's most widely traded commodity. Researchers at the Bush Center noted that gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and the global market are interconnected, and supply issues in one part of the world affect…
The Nevada IndependentLombardo -
AI data center plans on federal land roils the Nevada governor's race - Los Angeles Times
However, data centers have been unpopular in many communities as voters worry about higher electricity bills, declining water supplies and other effects.
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The West can’t power its future without more transmission
The West has always led by building big infrastructure and big industries and having big ideas.
The HillLombardo -
Election Updates: Polls Show Texas Senate Race Tightens; Trump to Rally in Arizona and Montana
Ms. Harris has already traveled to Detroit to appear with Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, and she is scheduled to appear on Oct.
New York TimesFord
No story this week names this candidate.
Aaron Ford, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAaron Ford | 54.3% | 53.5% | 54.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RJoe Lombardo | 45.8% | 47.5% | 45.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Aaron Ford
Democratic Attorney General of Nevada (since 2019)
Aaron Ford, a Democrat who has served as Nevada's attorney general since 2019, is challenging Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in the 2026 Nevada governor's race.
Joe Lombardo
Republican Governor of Nevada (since 2023)
Republican governor of Nevada since 2023 and former Clark County sheriff, seeking a second term against Democratic attorney general Aaron Ford in 2026.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi11.9K contracts
Nevada Governor margin of victory
| Lombardo, 2+ pts | 37.0% | |
| Lombardo, 5+ pts | 19.0% | |
| Lombardo, 8+ pts | 8.4% | |
| Lombardo, 11+ pts | 4.3% | |
| Lombardo, 14+ pts | 5.7% implied |
Kalshi11.1K contracts
Nevada Governor margin of victory
| Ford, 1+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Ford, 4+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Ford, 7+ pts | 12.5% | |
| Ford, 10+ pts | 4.5% |
Polymarket$15.3K traded
Nevada Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Ford 12%+ | 4.0% | |
| Ford 9-12% | 6.9% | |
| Ford 6-9% | 9.3% | |
| Ford 3-6% | 4.3% | |
| Ford 0-3% | 20.0% | |
| Lombardo 0-3% | 17.5% | |
| Lombardo 3-6% | 16.8% | |
| Lombardo 6-9% | 10.5% | |
| Lombardo 9-12% | 4.0% | |
| Lombardo 12%+ | 3.0% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$430.6K traded
Prices which party wins.
Aaron Ford: Counted · bid 53.0% / ask 54.0% · $75.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi1.5M contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Aaron Ford: Counted · bid 54.0% / ask 55.0% · $279.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Aaron Ford
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Nevada pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Nevada
- NV-01 HouseD95%
- NV-02 HouseR73%
- NV-03 HouseD93%
- NV-04 HouseD94%
- Henderson Mayor83%
- North Las Vegas Mayor81%
- Reno Mayor90%