US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NV-03 House.
Rep. Titus has served honorably, and her experience is unmatched. Ms. Buck, if elected, will have a steep learning curve. But we believe her market-oriented outlook would better serve Nevada and the country.
All Nevada members of Congress and their career totals [...] All Nevada members of Congress and their career totals
O'DonnellNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSusie Lee | 93.0% | 93.0% | 93.0% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| RMartin O'Donnell | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Martin O'Donnell, a Republican composer and audio director best known for his work on Bungie's Halo series, is his party's 2026 nominee for Nevada's 3rd congressional district against Democratic incumbent Susie Lee.
Susie Lee, a Democrat who has represented Nevada's 3rd congressional district since 2019, faces Republican Martin O'Donnell, a composer and 2024 candidate for the seat, in her 2026 bid for reelection.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Nevada's 3rd District margin of victory
| Lee, 1+ pts | 90.1% | |
| Lee, 3+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Lee, 6+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Lee, 9+ pts | 61.0% | |
| Lee, 12+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Lee, 15+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Lee, 18+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Lee, 21+ pts | 9.9% |
NV-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 5%+ | 1.9% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 1.8% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 4.6% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | – | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 30.0% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 30.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 6.5% | |
| Democrat 25%+ | 5.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Susie Lee: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 94.0% · $5.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Susie Lee: Counted · bid 91.8% / ask 94.1% · $6.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Susie Lee
If the House member sworn in for NV-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
