nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

HI-01 House 2026

96.1% DEd Case leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.8%
Kalshi
97.6%
Spread
1.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for HI-01 House.

  1. Ex-Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan Moves Supreme Court Against Kerala HC Direction For FIR In CMRL-Exalogic Case

    Former Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has moved the Supreme Court to challenge the Kerala High Court’s direction to register an FIR in the CMRL-Exalogic case based on information from the ED (Enforcement…

    livelaw.inCase
  2. HC denies anticipatory bail to Nayan Raheja in ED case

    Delhi High Court has refused anticipatory bail to Nayan Raheja in an Enforcement Directorate (ED) case.

    The Times of IndiaCase
  3. Hirono, Senate Committee Leaders, Tri-Ca...

    The page is a press releases index on Senator Mazie Hirono’s site, not a specific article about Jill Tokuda or HI-02 House.

    hirono.senate.govOfficialTokudaWhitesidesCaseTitusReed
  4. Yuvraj death: Police, doctor blame each other over ‘missing’ bone, belongings

    A dispute has erupted between Gurgaon Police and the postmortem doctor over the handling of Delhi-based real estate professional Yuvraj Singh Manchanda’s body and belongings.

    The Times of IndiaCase
  5. The anticipatory bail plea was filed in connection with an ED case registered in March

    A Delhi High Court judge refused anticipatory bail to real estate businessman Nayan Raheja in a money-laundering case filed by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in March 2022.

    zaobaoindia.comCase
More coverage 3
  1. Oliel introduces the admissions office that never closes

    Adriel Hernandez is the co-founder of Oliel, an AI admissions software company for private, Christian, preschools, Montessori, and academies based in Clermont, Florida.

    OpenPRLamAlso in abnewswire.com
  2. Adriel opens seventh Ohio office in Lima to support family reunification

    Adriel expands to Lima, Ohio, opening its seventh Ohio office to support family reunification.

    WOHLLam
  3. Urban Alleyways Inspire Narrow House Extension in Vietnam

    The article highlights ODDO Architects’ TH+ House extension in Hanoi, Vietnam, which transforms a narrow urban site into a collaborative, flexible family space.

    praisepower.orgLam

Ed Case, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DEd Case 96.1% 95.8% 97.6% 1.9 pts –
RAdriel Lam 3.0% 3.0% 2.2% 0.8 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Adriel Lam

Republican

Adriel Lam, a Republican who was a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2024, is his party's nominee for Hawaii's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Ed Case.

Ed Case

Ed Case

Democratic U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 1st congressional district (since 2019)

Ed Case, a Democrat who has represented Hawaii's 1st congressional district since 2019 and earlier represented the 2nd district, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Adriel Lam.

Born 1952 · Hilo

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.0K contracts

Hawaii's 1st District margin of victory

Case, 30+ pts
96.4%
Case, 33+ pts
92.4%
Case, 36+ pts
83.5%
Case, 39+ pts
75.5%
Case, 42+ pts
64.5%
Case, 45+ pts
52.0%
Case, 48+ pts
33.5%
Case, 51+ pts
19.5%
Case, 54+ pts
8.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$24.7K traded

HI-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
Democrat 0-15%
0.1%
Democrat 15-25%
0.1%
Democrat 25-30%
0.1%
Democrat 30-35%
9.0%
Democrat 35-40%
16.4%
Democrat 40-45%
18.1%
Democrat 45-50%
24.0%
Democrat 50-55%
29.6%
Democrat 55%+
4.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$53.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ed Case: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 97.0% · $2.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi118 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Ed Case: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 99.6% · $614 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ed Case

If the House member sworn in for HI-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Hawaii

  1. Hawaii GovernorD99%
  2. HI-02 HouseD96%