US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for HI-02 House.
The Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Caucus (CAPAC) issued a statement blaming the Trump administration for anti-South Asian hate, with signatories from CAPAC leadership, including Jill Tokuda (Second Vice…
Brenton Awa is mentioned as Senate Minority Leader who, on June 30, appointed McKay to replace Curtis as one of the four state Republican-appointed commissioners on Hawaii’s elections watchdog.
AwaThe University of Hawaii at Mānoa, in partnership with Clemson University, will lead a federal program (the CCIL) to boost U.S. and global coffee and cacao production. The initiative leverages the U.S.
TokudaThe Clemson News release highlights Clemson University and Hawaii collaboration led by researchers to boost global coffee and cacao productivity, with a focus on benefiting South Carolina.
TokudaThe page is a press releases index on Senator Mazie Hirono’s site, not a specific article about Jill Tokuda or HI-02 House.
Brenton Awa, Hawaii’s Senate Minority Leader, appointed McKay to replace Curtis on June 30 as one of four Republican-appointed commissioners on Hawaii’s elections watchdog.
Brenton Awa is Hawaii’s Senate Minority Leader who, on June 30, appointed McKay to the Hawaii Elections Commission, replacing Curtis as one of the four Republican-appointed commissioners.
AwaNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJill Tokuda | 95.8% | 95.6% | 96.4% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RBrenton Awa | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Brenton Awa, a Republican former television news anchor who serves as minority leader of the Hawaii Senate, is his party's nominee for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Jill Tokuda.
Jill Tokuda, a Democrat who has represented Hawaii's 2nd congressional district since 2023, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Brenton Awa, the minority leader of the Hawaii Senate.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Hawaii's 2nd District margin of victory
| Tokuda, 20+ pts | 95.5% | |
| Tokuda, 23+ pts | 91.9% | |
| Tokuda, 26+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Tokuda, 29+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Tokuda, 32+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Tokuda, 35+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Tokuda, 38+ pts | 26.5% | |
| Tokuda, 41+ pts | 13.6% | |
| Tokuda, 44+ pts | 5.5% |
HI-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.1% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 10-20% | 3.8% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 12.3% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 4.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | – | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 22.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 26.0% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 9.0% | |
| Democrat 50%+ | 3.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Jill Tokuda: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 97.1% · $4.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jill Tokuda: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 97.9% · $1.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jill Tokuda
If the House member sworn in for HI-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
