House · 3 November 2026

WV-01 House 2026

97.0% RCarol Miller leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 98.2%
Kalshi: 96.2%
Spread: 2.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −1.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WV-01 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Here are the farmers and ranchers in Congress

Farmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.

capitalpress.comYesterday

Carol Miller, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RCarol Miller	97.0%		98.2%	96.2%	2.0 pts	–
DVince George	2.3%		1.9%	2.4%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Carol Miller

Republican U.S. Representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (since 2023)

Carol Miller, a Republican who has represented West Virginia's 1st congressional district since 2023 and previously the 3rd district, faces Democrat Vince George and Constitution Party nominee Belinda Fox-Spencer in 2026.

Born 1950 · Columbus

Full candidate profile →

Vince George

Democratic

Vince George, a Democrat and retired public policy analyst, is the Democratic nominee for West Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Carol Miller and Constitution Party nominee Belinda Fox-Spencer.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi782 contracts

West Virginia's 1st District margin of victory

Miller, 24+ pts		87.4%
Miller, 27+ pts		79.0%
Miller, 30+ pts		68.5%
Miller, 33+ pts		57.5%
Miller, 36+ pts		43.0%
Miller, 39+ pts		32.5%
Miller, 42+ pts		21.5%
Miller, 45+ pts		12.7%
Miller, 48+ pts		6.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.8K traded

WV-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.3%
Republican 0-5%		0.1%
Republican 5-15%		6.3%
Republican 15-20%		7.5%
Republican 20-25%		14.6%
Republican 25-30%		–
Republican 30-35%		25.0%
Republican 35-40%		21.5%
Republican 40-45%		4.4%
Republican 45%+		14.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$62.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Carol Miller: Counted · bid 97.7% / ask 98.7% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.4K contracts traded