US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for WV-02 House.
Alaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) advanced to the general election from the top-four primary). Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
Kreiss-TomkinsParsi
Bronson
HolscherNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRiley Moore | 96.6% | 96.6% | 96.7% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DAce Parsi | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Ace Parsi, a Democrat and political organizer, is the Democratic nominee for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Riley Moore after winning a three-way primary.
Riley Moore, a Republican who has represented West Virginia's 2nd congressional district since 2025 and was previously state treasurer, faces Democrat Ace Parsi, a political organizer, in the 2026 general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
West Virginia's 2nd District margin of victory
| Moore, 21+ pts | 91.8% | |
| Moore, 24+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Moore, 27+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Moore, 30+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Moore, 33+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Moore, 36+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Moore, 39+ pts | 13.7% | |
| Moore, 42+ pts | 5.8% | |
| Moore, 45+ pts | 3.4% |
WV-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.3% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 0.1% | |
| Republican 5-15% | 0.7% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 1.8% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 18.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 30.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 24.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 14.7% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 1.8% | |
| Republican 45%+ | 7.2% |
Prices which party wins.
Riley Moore: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.2% · $2.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Riley Moore: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 97.7% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Riley Moore
If the House member sworn in for WV-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
