Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Arizona: Proposition 317 (drug cartels)

– Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™

Polymarket: 70.5%
Kalshi: 41.5%
Spread: –
24h: –
7 days: –
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	–		70.5%	41.5%	–	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Each venue's market

Polymarket$824 traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Not counted: bid and ask more than 10 pts apart · bid 51.0% / ask 90.0%

Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi10.5K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Not counted: bid and ask more than 10 pts apart · bid 3.0% / ask 80.0%

If Proposition 317 passes in Arizona, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi