US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for AZ-04 House.
Greg Stanton, a U.S. lawmaker (AZ-04), condemned a potential mass shooting as an act of white supremacist hate targeting Indian Americans.
StantonRepresentative Greg Stanton (AZ-04) has voiced concerns in response to ICE’s $1.2 billion contract awarded to GardaWorld Federal Services to expand immigration detention facilities in Florence, AZ.
StantonThe POLITICO piece “Flock lobbies up” highlights lobbying activity in politics, with a note that the Arizona Green Party has endorsed or supported candidates, including Greg Stanton for re-election to Congress.
The page reports that U.S. Senator Patty Murray and Senator Maria Cantwell (implied by context) urge federal action to fund modernization of the Sumas and Lynden border stations, signaling bipartisan priority for…
Representative Greg Stanton (D-AZ-04) leads the Semiconductor Controls Effectiveness Act.
StantonNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGreg Stanton | 95.4% | 96.0% | 95.1% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| RZuhdi Jasser | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Greg Stanton, a Democrat and former mayor of Phoenix who has served in the U.S. House since 2019, seeks reelection in Arizona's 4th congressional district in 2026 against Republican physician Zuhdi Jasser.
Zuhdi Jasser, a Republican physician, former U.S. Navy officer and founder of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, faces Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton for Arizona's 4th congressional district in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Arizona's 4th District margin of victory
| Stanton, 4+ pts | 94.0% | |
| Stanton, 7+ pts | 88.5% | |
| Stanton, 10+ pts | 79.5% | |
| Stanton, 13+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Stanton, 16+ pts | 57.5% | |
| Stanton, 19+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Stanton, 22+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Stanton, 25+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Stanton, 28+ pts | 10.1% | |
| Stanton, 31+ pts | 4.7% |
AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.9% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | – | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 14.0% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 27.0% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 30.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 9.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 0.6% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 4.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Greg Stanton: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.8% · $398 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Greg Stanton: Counted · bid 93.4% / ask 96.8% · $904 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Greg Stanton
If the House member sworn in for AZ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
