US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for AZ-02 House.
Each race name links to its comparison page. Incumbents and former members carry a grade from the NumbersUSA grade cards, which score committee votes, floor votes and cosponsorships.
"For decades, companies have been able to sidestep hiring American workers because of a salary threshold that hasn't budged since 1998. That's not modernization, that's a loophole.
AZ Political Podcast: Why Democrat Jonathan Nez thinks this election could be differentAZ Political Podcast: Why Democrat Jonathan Nez thinks this election could be differentMaricopa County supervisor slams recorder for…
NezThe video from the 2026 Arizona General Election interview with CD 2 candidate Jonathan Nez. Nez's opponent, Republican incumbent Eli Crane, declined an invitation to debate Nez.
White powder envelope prompts hazmat response at Arizona Secretary of State’s office
NezRepublican nominee Andy Biggs and John Giles, Democrat Katie Hobbs' running mate, are both Latter-day Saints. Some Arizona church members say character, not party, will decide their vote.
The rally featured several other Republican candidates seeking office in Arizona. Trump endorsed Sine Kerr, a former state senator selected by Biggs in July as his running mate for the newly created position of…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REli Crane | 75.2% | 74.0% | 76.5% | 2.5 pts | – | |
| DJonathan Nez | 24.7% | 25.5% | 23.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Eli Crane, a Republican and former Navy SEAL who has represented Arizona's 2nd congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Jonathan Nez, former president of the Navajo Nation.
Jonathan Nez, a Democrat who served as president of the Navajo Nation from 2019 to 2023, faces Republican incumbent Eli Crane for Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2026, a rematch of their 2024 race.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory
| Crane, 1+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Crane, 4+ pts | 58.5% | |
| Crane, 7+ pts | 28.0% | |
| Crane, 10+ pts | 29.0% | |
| Crane, 13+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Crane, 16+ pts | 8.8% | |
| Crane, 19+ pts | 4.3% |
Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory
| Nez, 2+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Nez, 5+ pts | 7.6% |
AZ-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 18%+ | 2.6% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 3.4% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 4.0% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 5.1% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 12.9% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 16.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 29.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 14.5% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 4.9% | |
| Democrat 6%+ | 5.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Eli Crane: Counted · bid 73.0% / ask 75.0% · $7.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Eli Crane: Counted · bid 76.0% / ask 77.0% · $6.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Eli Crane
If the House member sworn in for AZ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
