House · 3 November 2026

AZ-09 House 2026

94.7% RPaul Gosar leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 96.1%
Spread: 1.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Paul Gosar, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RPaul Gosar	94.7%		94.5%	96.1%	1.6 pts	–
DDani Sterbinsky	3.7%		3.7%	3.6%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Paul Gosar

Republican U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district (since 2023)

Paul Gosar, a Republican former dentist who has served in the U.S. House since 2011 and represented Arizona's 9th congressional district since 2023, faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky, a U.S. Navy veteran, in 2026.

Born 1958 · Rock Springs, Wyoming

Full candidate profile →

Dani Sterbinsky

Democratic

Dani Sterbinsky is a Democratic candidate for the US House in Arizona's 9th congressional district (AZ-09) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi13.5K contracts

Arizona's 9th District margin of victory

Gosar, 9+ pts		88.3%
Gosar, 12+ pts		80.5%
Gosar, 15+ pts		67.5%
Gosar, 18+ pts		52.5%
Gosar, 21+ pts		38.0%
Gosar, 24+ pts		24.5%
Gosar, 27+ pts		13.6%
Gosar, 30+ pts		6.0%
Gosar, 33+ pts		3.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.3K traded

AZ-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		4.5%
Republican 0-5%		0.9%
Republican 5-10%		5.4%
Republican 10-15%		12.3%
Republican 15-20%		35.5%
Republican 20-25%		21.5%
Republican 25-30%		4.5%
Republican 30-35%		3.7%
Republican 35%+		5.1%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$36.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Paul Gosar: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $7.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.1K contracts traded