Arizona 2026 elections
Arizona, the Southwestern state whose capital is Phoenix, holds a governor's race, 9 US House contests and 9 ballot measures on November 3, 2026.
Original: Unknown author Vector: Madden, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons- Capital
- Phoenix
- Largest city
- Phoenix
- Population
- 7.62M (2025 estimate)
- Statehood
- 48th state (February 14, 1912)
Current officeholders
House
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-02 House | REli Crane | Lean R | 75.0% | 74.5% | 76.5% | 2.0 pts | +0.1 | +8.0 | 96.5K | ||
| AZ-01 House | DAmish Shah | Likely D | 80.2% | 81.5% | 79.0% | 2.5 pts | −0.4 | +1.7 | 207.8K | ||
| AZ-06 House | DJoAnna Mendoza | Likely D | 83.9% | 83.5% | 84.0% | 2.0 pts | 0.0 | +0.4 | 43.6K | ||
| AZ-08 House | RAbraham Hamadeh | Likely R | 86.7% | 86.5% | 87.5% | 1.0 pts | −0.4 | +2.2 | 24.9K | ||
| AZ-05 House | RMark Lamb | Likely R | 89.6% | 89.5% | 90.1% | 0.7 pts | −0.1 | −2.6 | 66.2K | ||
| AZ-09 House | RPaul Gosar | Safe R | 94.6% | 94.5% | 95.9% | 1.4 pts | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.7K | ||
| AZ-04 House | DGreg Stanton | Safe D | 95.4% | 96.0% | 95.1% | 1.1 pts | +0.1 | −1.2 | 52.4K | ||
| AZ-03 House | DYassamin Ansari | Safe D | 98.5% | 99.0% | 98.3% | 0.7 pts | −0.2 | −0.2 | 53.6K | ||
| AZ-07 House | DAdelita Grijalva | Safe D | 98.6% | 99.0% | 98.4% | 0.7 pts | +0.1 | 0.0 | 40.6K |
House seats Democrats win in Arizona
Each venue's market, shown on its own.
Kalshi25.8K contracts
How many House seats will Democrats win in Arizona?
| Below 3 | 1.0% implied | |
| 3 | 4.5% | |
| 4 | 19.0% | |
| 5 | 54.5% | |
| 6 | 20.5% | |
| Above 6 | 4.5% |
Polymarket$26.0K traded
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
| <3 | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | |
| 4 | 22.3% | |
| 5 | 52.0% | |
| 6 | 17.0% | |
| 7+ | 4.1% |
Political landscape in Arizona
Overview
Arizona, a landlocked state of the American Southwest, meets Colorado, New Mexico and Utah at the Four Corners. Nevada borders it on the northwest and California on the west, and an international boundary with Sonora and Baja California in Mexico runs along its south and southwest. It ranks sixth in area and 14th in population among the states. Phoenix is both the capital and the largest city, and it has the largest population of any state capital. Once part of New Spain and later of independent Mexico, much of the region passed to the United States in 1848 after the Mexican–American War, and the Gadsden Purchase of 1853 added the southern edge. Arizona became the 48th state on February 14, 1912, the final contiguous state to join. Inward migration since the 1950s has driven rapid growth in population and output, turning the state into a major Sun Belt hub; PetSmart and Circle K are headquartered there, and Grand Canyon National Park lies within the state.
Officeholders
As of October 2026, the governor of Arizona is Katie Hobbs (Democratic), and the state's US senators are Mark Kelly (Democratic) and Ruben Gallego (Democratic).
2026 elections
On November 3, 2026, voters in Arizona will decide the race for governor, contests in 9 US House districts and 9 ballot measures. The measures include propositions on traffic cameras and drug cartels, plus HCR 2003 on transgender access to school and athletic facilities.
Ballot measures
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona: HCR 2003 (transgender school and athletic access) Yes |
Yes | Lean Yes | 60.5% Polymarket only |
60.5% | – | – | 0.0 | −1.5 | 1.8K | ||
| Arizona: Proposition 144 Yes |
Yes | Lean Yes | 68.0% Kalshi only |
– | 68.0% | – | – | −3.0 | 5.0K | ||
| Arizona: Proposition 319 (traffic cameras) Yes |
Yes | Likely Yes | 84.0% Polymarket only |
84.0% | 87.5% | – | +1.0 | +2.8 | 8.8K | ||
| Arizona: Proposition 317 (drug cartels) Yes |
Yes | – | 70.5% | 41.5% | – | – | – | 11.3K | |||
| Arizona: Proposition 141 Yes |
Yes | – | – | 90.5% | – | – | – | 6.1K | |||
| Arizona: Proposition 320 Yes |
Yes | – | – | 42.0% | – | – | – | 2.8K | |||
| Arizona: Proposition 318 Yes |
Yes | – | – | 63.0% | – | – | – | 2.0K | |||
| Arizona: Proposition 142 Yes |
Yes | – | – | 79.5% | – | – | – | 277 | |||
| Arizona: Proposition 316 Yes |
Yes | – | – | 89.5% | – | – | – | 1 |