nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

AZ-05 House 2026

89.6% RMark Lamb leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
89.5%
Kalshi
90.1%
Spread
0.6 pts
24h
–
7 days
−2.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AZ-05 House.

  1. Wildwood Fan Screenings to Debut Film Early

    The article announces Wildwood film screenings at the AZ-05 House (likely a venue/event) ahead of its wide release.

    TheWrapLee
  2. Rasmus Dahlin kan återvända för Sabres mot Montreal i helgen, enligt tränaren.

    The article itself appears to be a Swedish news item about Rasmus Dahlin and the Buffalo Sabres; it does not pertain to Elizabeth Lee or the AZ-05 House race.

    nyhetersverige.seLee
  3. LAIKA and Fathom Entertainment - Wildwood Fan First Screenings

    Topic: Wildwood film project from LAIKA and Fathom Entertainment, highlighted through Wildwood Fan First Screenings.

    fathomentertainment.comLee
  4. ACT halfway through term as leadership overhauls set up 2028 election battle · InSnip

    Elizabeth Lee is the Canberra Liberal leader who changed leadership within two years, positioning the party ahead of the 2028 election.

    insnip.comLee

Mark Lamb, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RMark Lamb 89.6% 89.5% 90.1% 0.6 pts –
DElizabeth Lee 11.5% 11.5% 10.9% 0.6 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Elizabeth Lee

Democratic

Elizabeth Lee, a Democrat and nurse, is her party's nominee for Arizona's open 5th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Mark Lamb, a former Pinal County sheriff.

Mark Lamb

Mark Lamb

Republican

Mark Lamb, a Republican who served as sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona, from 2017 to 2024, faces Democrat Elizabeth Lee for Arizona's open 5th congressional district seat in 2026.

Born 1972 · Hilo, Hawaii

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.4K contracts

Arizona's 5th District margin of victory

Lamb, 2+ pts
85.0%
Lamb, 5+ pts
73.0%
Lamb, 8+ pts
59.5%
Lamb, 11+ pts
44.5%
Lamb, 14+ pts
28.5%
Lamb, 17+ pts
19.5%
Lamb, 20+ pts
11.5%
Lamb, 23+ pts
5.8%
Lamb, 26+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.2K traded

AZ-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+
4.3%
Republican 20-25%
4.6%
Republican 15-20%
–
Republican 10-15%
25.0%
Republican 5-10%
26.5%
Republican 0-5%
7.3%
Democrat 0-5%
3.5%
Democrat 5%+
3.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$42.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Lamb: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 90.0% · $4.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi23.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Lamb: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 90.2% · $449 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Mark Lamb

If the House member sworn in for AZ-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Arizona

  1. Arizona GovernorD89%
  2. AZ-01 HouseD80%
  3. AZ-02 HouseR75%
  4. AZ-03 HouseD99%
  5. AZ-04 HouseD95%
  6. AZ-06 HouseD84%
  7. AZ-07 HouseD99%
  8. AZ-08 HouseR86%