nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

AZ-06 House 2026

83.9% DJoAnna Mendoza leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
83.5%
Kalshi
84.0%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AZ-06 House.

  1. Ciscomani and Mendoza trade policy barbs in CD6 debate

    In the CD6 debate, incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza clashed over trade policy. The exchange focused on how each candidate would handle U.S.

    pro.stateaffairs.comCiscomaniMendoza
  2. Election 2026 Latinos | National News

    The page covers Election 2026 news related to Latino communities, with a photo and caption featuring JoAnna Mendoza, a Democratic candidate for Arizona’s 6th Congressional District (AZ-06).

    Idaho Falls Post RegisterMendoza
  3. David Flippo’s campaign is backed by election deniers

    JoAnna Mendoza is the subject of a political ad controversy in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District.

    American Journal NewsMendoza
  4. Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races

    Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”

    insidepoliticalmoney.comJamesGrayBuckhoutCammackCiscomaniCrankConroyOrdenFleischmannHinesSteil
  5. Trump Rallied in Arizona: But Left Out the State’s Most Competitive Races

    The article notes that during a Trump rally in Arizona, two of the state’s most competitive congressional races were largely ignored: Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) and Jay Feely.

    commongoodnews.orgCiscomani
More coverage 3
  1. CVAA Endorses Juan Ciscomani for House Reelection

    CVAA Action has endorsed Rep. Juan Ciscomani for reelection in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District (AZ-06).

    concernedvetsaction.comCiscomani
  2. Minnesotans: Trump’s Raid on Ilhan Omar Will Backfire Big-Time

    The linked article from The New Republic discusses reactions to former President Trump’s raid on Ilhan Omar and predicts political backlash in Minnesota, rather than focusing on Arizona.

    New RepublicMendoza
  3. This Montana Democrat Is Running a Nail-Biter of a Midterm Experiment

    A campaigning anecdote: Tucson Mayor Regina Romero is seen knocking doors for Mendoza, and Mendoza previously volunteered on Romero’s first mayoral campaign.

    New RepublicMendoza

JoAnna Mendoza, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJoAnna Mendoza 83.9% 83.5% 84.0% 0.5 pts –
RJuan Ciscomani 16.2% 14.5% 16.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/az-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-az-06">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

JoAnna Mendoza

Democratic

JoAnna Mendoza, a Democrat and former veteran services representative for U.S. Representative Tom O'Halleran, faces Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani for Arizona's 6th congressional district in 2026.

Juan Ciscomani

Juan Ciscomani

Republican U.S. Representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (since 2023)

Juan Ciscomani, a Republican who has represented Arizona's 6th congressional district since 2023 and was a senior adviser to Governor Doug Ducey, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza.

Born 1982 · Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.2K contracts

Arizona's 6th District margin of victory

Ciscomani, 2+ pts
11.8%
Ciscomani, 5+ pts
6.1%
Ciscomani, 8+ pts
3.4%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi8.8K contracts

Arizona's 6th District margin of victory

Mendoza, 1+ pts
81.0%
Mendoza, 4+ pts
63.5%
Mendoza, 7+ pts
43.5%
Mendoza, 10+ pts
24.5%
Mendoza, 13+ pts
13.9%
Mendoza, 16+ pts
6.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.3K traded

AZ-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6%+
0.3%
Republican 3-6%
3.4%
Republican 0-3%
11.9%
Democrat 0-3%
16.5%
Democrat 3-6%
20.5%
Democrat 6-9%
17.0%
Democrat 9-12%
12.0%
Democrat 12-15%
4.9%
Democrat 15-18%
0.5%
Democrat 18%+
0.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$17.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

JoAnna Mendoza: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $3.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi26.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

JoAnna Mendoza: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 85.0% · $26.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: JoAnna Mendoza

If the House member sworn in for AZ-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Arizona

  1. Arizona GovernorD89%
  2. AZ-01 HouseD80%
  3. AZ-02 HouseR75%
  4. AZ-03 HouseD99%
  5. AZ-04 HouseD95%
  6. AZ-05 HouseR90%
  7. AZ-07 HouseD99%
  8. AZ-08 HouseR86%