nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

AZ-01 House 2026

80.3% DAmish Shah leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
81.5%
Kalshi
79.0%
Spread
2.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.8
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AZ-01 House.

  1. Kyrsten Sinema Reportedly Voted For ‘Commonsense,’ ‘Fiscal Conservative’ Jay Feely In GOP Primary

    Kyrsten Sinema reportedly backed Republican Jay Feely in Arizona’s 2026 GOP primary for the 1st Congressional District (AZ-01).

    azfreenews.comFeely
  2. CD 1 debate sees Jay Feely and Amish Shah avoid attacks

    Jay Feely (Republican) is a candidate in Arizona's 1st Congressional District (AZ-01). He participated in a Clean Elections debate with Democrat Amish Shah at Sneaky Big Studios in Scottsdale on October 7, 2026.

    pro.stateaffairs.comFeely
  3. Amish Shah Wins Democratic Nod in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District

    Amish Shah won the Democratic primary in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, defeating the DCCC-endorsed Marlene Galán-Woods despite the party’s backing.

    kwva270.orgFeelyShah
  4. 🚨 RATINGS CHANGE: Inside Elections Shifts AZ-01 in Amish Shah’s Direction

    Inside Elections shifted Arizona’s 1st Congressional District (AZ-01) from Toss-Up to Tilt Democratic, signaling momentum for Amish Shah.

    Democratic Congressional Campaign CommitteeFeely
  5. Innovation Times U.S. House of Representatives Races to Watch in the 2026 Midterm Elections: Battleground Districts That Could Decide Control of Congress

    Brian Poindexter is challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th Congressional District.

    innovationtimes.orgHinesPoindexterShah
More coverage 2
  1. Ex-Democrat Senator Privately Backs Trump-Endorsed Republican in Key Arizona House Race

    The piece reports that Amish Shah, a former Arizona state representative with a history of breaking with Democratic leaders, is the Democratic candidate running against Feely (a former NFL kicker) for Arizona’s 1st…

    slaynews.comShah
  2. Crazy from the electoral heat

    Amish Shah, a Democrat running for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District (AZ-01), has been the target of a GOP-driven controversy over a video showing him parking in a handicapped spot during an event.

    Arizona AgendaShah

Amish Shah, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DAmish Shah 80.3% 81.5% 79.0% 2.5 pts –
RJay Feely 19.8% 19.5% 20.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/az-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-az-01">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Amish Shah

Amish Shah

Democratic

Amish Shah, a Democrat and emergency physician who served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2019 to 2024, faces Republican Jay Feely for Arizona's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026.

Chicago, Illinois
Jay Feely

Jay Feely

Republican

Jay Feely, a Republican CBS Sports analyst and former National Football League placekicker whose teams included the Arizona Cardinals, faces Democrat Amish Shah for Arizona's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi37.4K contracts

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory

Feely, 1+ pts
20.0%
Feely, 4+ pts
9.4%
Feely, 7+ pts
4.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi11.4K contracts

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory

Shah, 1+ pts
73.5%
Shah, 2+ pts
66.5%
Shah, 5+ pts
51.0%
Shah, 8+ pts
36.0%
Shah, 11+ pts
20.5%
Shah, 14+ pts
10.8%
Shah, 17+ pts
4.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.0K traded

AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 6%+
5.1%
Republican 3-6%
3.6%
Republican 0-3%
–
Democrat 0-3%
9.8%
Democrat 3-6%
16.5%
Democrat 6-9%
13.5%
Democrat 9-12%
10.9%
Democrat 12-15%
8.2%
Democrat 15-18%
4.9%
Democrat 18%+
3.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$66.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Amish Shah: Counted · bid 81.0% / ask 82.0% · $8.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi141.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Amish Shah: Counted · bid 78.0% / ask 80.0% · $7.6K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Amish Shah

If the House member sworn in for AZ-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Arizona

  1. Arizona GovernorD89%
  2. AZ-02 HouseR75%
  3. AZ-03 HouseD99%
  4. AZ-04 HouseD95%
  5. AZ-05 HouseR90%
  6. AZ-06 HouseD84%
  7. AZ-07 HouseD99%
  8. AZ-08 HouseR86%