House · 3 November 2026

AZ-08 House 2026

86.3% RAbraham Hamadeh leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 86.0%
Kalshi: 87.5%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AZ-08 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

Democrat seeks to unseat Republican in red Arizona district

Bernadette Greene-Placentia, a Democrat and former long-haul truck driver with 27 years on the road, is running to unseat Republican U.S. Rep.

cbnc.comYesterdayGreene-PlacentiaAlso in Frankfort Local, caseylocal.com, Big Country News

Wednesday, Oct 14
Arizona schools, libraries face uncertainty as FCC considers E-Rate changes | State
The article discusses uncertainty impacting Arizona schools and libraries due to potential changes the FCC is considering for the E-Rate program, which funds telecommunications and connectivity for eligible schools and…

Herald/Review MediaYesterdayGreene-Placentia
GKSD Chairman Kamel Ghribi Presents US Award for Global Health Leadership to Dr. Tedros at UN General Assembly - EIN Presswire
Abraham Hamadeh, a U.S. Congressman, participated in presenting the United States Award for Global Health Leadership to Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the UN General Assembly event on September 24, 2026.

einnews.comYesterdayHamadehAlso in EIN Presswire

Abraham Hamadeh, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RAbraham Hamadeh	86.3%		86.0%	87.5%	1.5 pts	–
DBernadette Greene-Placentia	13.0%		13.0%	13.0%	0.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/az-08/embed.html" title="AZ-08 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/az-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-az-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/az-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-az-08"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/az-08/card-landscape.png" alt="AZ-08 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Abraham Hamadeh

Republican U.S. Representative for Arizona's 8th congressional district (since 2025)

Abraham Hamadeh, a Republican attorney and Army Reserve intelligence officer who has represented Arizona's 8th congressional district since 2025, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia, a truck driver.

Born 1991 · Chicago, Illinois

Full candidate profile →

Bernadette Greene-Placentia

Democratic

Bernadette Greene-Placentia, a truck driver, is the Democratic nominee for Arizona's 8th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Abraham Hamadeh in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi9.6K contracts

Arizona's 8th District margin of victory

Hamadeh, 3+ pts		83.5%
Hamadeh, 6+ pts		71.5%
Hamadeh, 9+ pts		54.5%
Hamadeh, 12+ pts		37.5%
Hamadeh, 15+ pts		23.5%
Hamadeh, 18+ pts		11.8%
Hamadeh, 21+ pts		5.2%
Hamadeh, 24+ pts		3.1%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.5K traded

AZ-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+		5.2%
Republican 18-21%		5.8%
Republican 15-18%		7.0%
Republican 12-15%		8.0%
Republican 9-12%		17.5%
Republican 6-9%		23.5%
Republican 3-6%		23.5%
Republican 0-3%		1.7%
Democrat 0-3%		–
Democrat 3%+		4.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$16.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Abraham Hamadeh: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 87.0% · $6.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi8.6K contracts traded