US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Arizona Governor.
Now, Ricketts remains favored to win, enjoying about a 4 in 5 chance of success in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. While the polls are close, Ricketts’s chances are helped by Nebraska’s firmly red lean.
The poll from Equis Research found that Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs is leading by about seven points over Republican candidate Andy Biggs in the race to become Arizona’s governor for the next four years.
Republican nominee Andy Biggs and John Giles, Democrat Katie Hobbs' running mate, are both Latter-day Saints. Some Arizona church members say character, not party, will decide their vote.
Daily Independent Apache Junction / Gold Canyon Cave Creek / Carefree Chandler Fountain Hills Gilbert Glendale Litchfield Park / Goodyear Mesa Paradise Valley Peoria Phoenix Queen Creek …
HobbsInstead, we have a governor in Arizona who is taking a page out of the Joe Biden playbook of hiding out in the basement.
HobbsThe rally featured several other Republican candidates seeking office in Arizona. Trump endorsed Sine Kerr, a former state senator selected by Biggs in July as his running mate for the newly created position of…
Hobbs, Biggs exchange barbs at AZ opening of Taiwan trade office
HobbsSeveral of the candidates running in congressional races have altered their websites since the July primary election and removed some images or mentions of Trump.
BiggsArizona Governor Katie Hobbs formed a committee of space experts to pitch the state as the location for a proposed United States Space Academy.
HobbsTo support job growth, Biggs' campaign website says he backs eliminating regulations and red tape that prevent job creation in Arizona.
BiggsThe president’s appearance also puts renewed attention on Biggs’ role in Trump’s unsuccessful effort to overturn his 2020 election loss to former President Joe Biden.
BiggsAlaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) advanced to the general election from the top-four primary). Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
US Representative and Republican nominee for Arizona governor Andy Biggs speaks during a campaign rally at Laughlin/Bullhead International Airport in
Biggs"As governor, I've prioritized students by lowering everyday costs, cutting taxes on tips and overtime, and expanding scholarships and apprenticeships," Hobbs said in a written statement.
BiggsAddressing the crowd, Biggs vowed to eliminate the state income tax, reduce regulation on Arizona’s businesses, and “DOGE the heck out of Arizona.”
BiggsBarack Obama released a video endorsing Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs. The endorsement supports Hobbs in her role as Arizona’s governor and signals the former president’s backing in her political efforts.
HobbsAt a Bullhead City rally, President Donald Trump attacked Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, calling her “a dumb person” and referring to her as a “your failed, radical left governor” and a “Dumbocrat.”
HobbsFormer President Donald Trump is rallying in Bullhead City, Arizona, to back Rep. Andy Biggs in the race for Arizona governor.
HobbsCreating Arizona’s first Workplace Heat Stress State Emphasis Plan
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DKatie Hobbs | 88.5% | 88.5% | 88.5% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| RAndy Biggs | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Andy Biggs, a Republican who has represented Arizona's 5th congressional district since 2017, is his party's 2026 nominee for governor against Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs.
Democratic governor of Arizona since 2023 and former Arizona secretary of state, seeking a second term in 2026 against Republican congressman Andy Biggs.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Arizona Governor margin of victory
| Biggs, 1+ pts | 7.5% | |
| Biggs, 4+ pts | 5.0% implied | |
| Biggs, 7+ pts | 4.0% |
Arizona Governor margin of victory
| Hobbs, 2+ pts | 83.0% | |
| Hobbs, 5+ pts | 68.0% | |
| Hobbs, 8+ pts | 48.0% | |
| Hobbs, 11+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Hobbs, 14+ pts | 10.5% | |
| Hobbs, 17+ pts | 7.0% |
Arizona Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Biggs 6%+ | 1.3% | |
| Biggs 3-6% | 1.6% | |
| Biggs 0-3% | 3.8% | |
| Hobbs 0-3% | – | |
| Hobbs 3-6% | 9.5% | |
| Hobbs 6-9% | 26.5% | |
| Hobbs 9-12% | 20.5% | |
| Hobbs 12-15% | 13.5% | |
| Hobbs 15-18% | 9.8% | |
| Hobbs 18%+ | 4.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Katie Hobbs: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 89.0% · $68.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Katie Hobbs: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 89.0% · $92.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Katie Hobbs
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Arizona pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
