Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

California: Proposition 4 (public campaign financing)

45.0% Probability the measure passes Implied probabilityToss-up

Polymarket: 47.5%
Kalshi: –
Spread: –
24h: –
7 days: –
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	45.0% implied		47.5%	–	–	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/california-proposition-4-public-campaign-financing/embed.html" title="California: Proposition 4 (public campaign financing): live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/california-proposition-4-public-campaign-financing/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-california-proposition-4-public-campaign-financing">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/california-proposition-4-public-campaign-financing/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-california-proposition-4-public-campaign-financing"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/california-proposition-4-public-campaign-financing/card-landscape.png" alt="California: Proposition 4 (public campaign financing): odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Each venue's market

Polymarket$5 traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Not counted: bid and ask more than 10 pts apart · bid 14.0% / ask 81.0%

Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi543 contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Not counted: bids only or asks only · bid – / ask 45.0%

If Proposition 4 passes in California, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi