US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CA-45 House.
Tran, a Democrat and child of Vietnamese refugees, is defending his Orange County seat in a newly redrawn, moderately Democratic district (-about five points more favorable after Prop. 50).
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
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Tran
BentzKurdianThe article covers Orange County’s 45th Congressional District (CA-45), not CA-31.
Derek Tran is the Democratic incumbent representing California’s 45th Congressional District (CA-45), which covers most of Orange County and a small part of southeast Los Angeles County.
The article discusses Fairshake and its affiliated groups, which are backed by major crypto donors, including Coinbase, Andreessen Horowitz, and Ripple.
TranDistrict context: CA-45 spans most of Orange County with a small portion of southeast L.A. County; registered voters are about 38.6% Democrats, 30.4% Republicans, and 31% independents/no party.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDerek Tran | 93.2% | 93.5% | 92.9% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| RChuong Vo | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 0.2 pts | – |
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Chuong Vo, a Republican former mayor of Cerritos, faces Democratic incumbent Derek Tran for California's 45th congressional district in 2026 after finishing second in the top-two primary.
Derek Tran, a Democrat and Army Reserve veteran who has represented California's 45th congressional district since 2025, faces Republican Chuong Vo, a former mayor of Cerritos, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 45th District margin of victory
| Tran, 4+ pts | 88.5% | |
| Tran, 7+ pts | 79.0% | |
| Tran, 10+ pts | 67.0% | |
| Tran, 13+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Tran, 16+ pts | 38.5% | |
| Tran, 19+ pts | 25.0% | |
| Tran, 22+ pts | 14.2% | |
| Tran, 25+ pts | 7.3% | |
| Tran, 28+ pts | 4.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Derek Tran: Counted · bid 93.0% / ask 94.0% · $9.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Derek Tran: Counted · bid 92.4% / ask 93.4% · $10.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Derek Tran
If the House member sworn in for CA-45 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
