Updated Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
3 November 2026

California 2026 elections

California, the most populous US state, holds a governor's race, 52 US House contests, 15 ballot measures and 2 mayoral races on November 3, 2026.

Flag of CaliforniaOriginal: Donald Graeme Kelley Vectorization: Devin Cook, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Capital
Sacramento
Largest city
Los Angeles
Population
39.36M (2025 estimate)
Statehood
31st state (September 9, 1850)

Current officeholders

Governor 2026 Ballot
D Gavin Newsom
U.S. Senator Term ends later
D Alex Padilla
U.S. Senator Term ends later
D Adam Schiff

House

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
CA-40 House RKen Calvert Safe R 58.8% 56.5% 60.0% 3.5 pts −1.1 −0.7 30.4K
CA-22 House DRandy Villegas Safe D 90.8% 92.0% 90.7% 1.3 pts 0.0 −0.3 172.5K
CA-48 House DMarni von Wilpert Safe D 92.9% 93.5% 92.3% 1.2 pts +0.3 +0.2 81.1K
CA-45 House DDerek Tran Safe D 93.2% 93.5% 92.9% 0.6 pts −0.7 +0.1 153.4K
CA-05 House RTom McClintock Safe R 93.2% 93.0% 94.0% 1.1 pts +1.3 +1.9 44.1K
CA-37 House DSydney Kamlager-Dove Safe D 94.2% 94.2% 94.5% 1.3 pts −1.2 0.0 66.3K
CA-06 House DRichard Pan Safe D 94.5% 95.0% 92.2% 2.7 pts −0.1 +0.4 121.7K
CA-01 House DMike McGuire Safe D 94.7% 95.0% 94.1% 0.9 pts +2.3 −0.2 60.9K
CA-21 House DJim Costa Safe D 94.8% 95.6% 94.7% 1.3 pts −0.3 −0.4 66.8K
CA-04 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 95.1%
Polymarket only
95.1% – – −0.5 −0.6 59.0K
CA-13 House DAdam Gray Safe D 95.7% 96.0% 94.8% 1.2 pts −0.2 +0.4 78.0K
CA-27 House DGeorge Whitesides Safe D 95.8% 95.6% 95.8% 0.2 pts −0.2 +0.4 30.5K
CA-25 House DRaul Ruiz Safe D 95.9% 96.0% 95.8% 0.2 pts +0.3 −0.9 28.4K
CA-03 House DAmi Bera Safe D 96.0% 96.0% 95.8% 0.3 pts +0.4 +0.1 66.5K
CA-41 House DLinda Sánchez Safe D 96.0% 96.0% 95.8% 0.2 pts +0.4 −0.1 34.2K
CA-29 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 96.0%
Polymarket only
96.0% – – −0.1 +0.3 44.4K
CA-31 House DGil Cisneros Safe D 96.1% 95.8% 97.8% 2.1 pts +0.2 −0.1 19.1K
CA-33 House DPete Aguilar Safe D 96.2% 95.8% 96.6% 2.5 pts +0.4 +0.1 28.2K
CA-49 House DMike Levin Safe D 96.4% 97.1% 96.0% 1.1 pts +1.0 −0.2 44.4K
CA-47 House DDave Min Safe D 96.4% 97.0% 96.0% 1.0 pts −0.1 +0.7 36.0K
CA-50 House DScott Peters Safe D 96.4% 96.3% 96.9% 1.1 pts −0.1 +0.9 72.2K
CA-51 House DSara Jacobs Safe D 96.5% 95.6% 98.0% 2.4 pts +0.1 +0.5 35.3K
CA-26 House DJacqui Irwin Safe D 96.6% 96.0% 98.4% 2.4 pts 0.0 +1.1 37.3K
CA-08 House DJohn Garamendi Safe D 96.8% 96.1% 97.1% 1.2 pts 0.0 −0.4 59.8K
CA-46 House DLou Correa Safe D 97.0% 97.0% 97.0% 1.4 pts 0.0 +0.5 52.7K
CA-42 House DRobert Garcia Safe D 97.1% 97.0% 97.8% 1.0 pts +0.8 +0.5 44.1K
CA-09 House DJosh Harder Safe D 97.2% 97.5% 97.0% 1.0 pts 0.0 −0.4 30.5K
CA-52 House DJuan Vargas Safe D 97.2% 97.2% 97.2% 0.1 pts +0.2 +0.8 66.5K
CA-07 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 97.2%
Polymarket only
97.2% – – 0.0 +0.6 75.9K
CA-32 House DBrad Sherman Safe D 97.3% 97.1% 97.5% 0.9 pts +0.5 +1.0 31.4K
CA-39 House DMark Takano Safe D 97.3% 97.8% 97.0% 0.8 pts −0.5 +1.4 63.0K
CA-10 House DMark DeSaulnier Safe D 97.4% 97.0% 98.0% 1.9 pts +0.6 +0.3 28.4K
CA-15 House DKevin Mullin Safe D 97.5% 97.4% 97.8% 0.4 pts +0.1 +1.6 139.6K
CA-20 House RVince Fong Safe R 97.5% 98.1% 97.0% 1.1 pts −0.2 0.0 54.9K
CA-23 House RJay Obernolte Safe R 97.6% 97.7% 97.2% 0.5 pts +0.1 +2.4 105.5K
CA-43 House DMaxine Waters Safe D 97.6% 97.3% 98.4% 1.1 pts +1.4 +1.1 34.9K
CA-30 House DLaura Friedman Safe D 97.7% 97.1% 98.6% 1.5 pts +1.5 +1.8 38.5K
CA-16 House DSam Liccardo Safe D 97.7% 97.4% 98.0% 0.7 pts −0.1 +0.6 117.8K
CA-36 House DTed Lieu Safe D 97.7% 97.5% 98.8% 1.3 pts +0.6 +1.0 91.0K
CA-12 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 97.8%
Polymarket only
97.8% – – 0.0 0.0 52.2K
CA-24 House DSalud Carbajal Safe D 97.8% 97.8% 97.8% 0.5 pts −0.3 +0.4 65.8K
CA-28 House DJudy Chu Safe D 97.9% 97.6% 98.3% 0.6 pts +0.2 +1.4 145.2K
CA-38 House DHilda Solis Safe D 97.9% 97.9% 98.0% 0.5 pts −0.1 −0.3 68.4K
CA-17 House DRo Khanna Safe D 97.9% 97.6% 98.5% 0.9 pts −0.5 −0.6 17.8K
CA-34 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 98.0%
Polymarket only
98.0% – – 0.0 −0.1 119.6K
CA-44 House DNanette Barragán Safe D 98.2% 97.8% 98.7% 0.9 pts +0.3 +0.6 48.1K
CA-18 House DZoe Lofgren Safe D 98.2% 98.3% 98.3% 0.0 pts −0.1 −0.2 51.3K
CA-02 House DJared Huffman Safe D 98.4% 98.1% 98.9% 0.8 pts −0.6 −0.4 23.0K
CA-11 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 98.4%
Polymarket only
98.4% – – 0.0 0.0 209.7K
CA-35 House DNorma Torres Safe D 98.5% 98.1% 98.8% 0.7 pts −0.2 −0.5 47.0K
CA-19 House DJimmy Panetta Safe D 98.8% 98.4% 99.0% 0.6 pts −0.1 +0.5 56.1K
CA-14 House
DDemocratic Party
DDemocratic Party Safe D 99.3%
Polymarket only
99.3% – – −0.1 −0.4 107.3K

House seats Democrats win in California

Each venue's market, shown on its own.

Kalshi26.7K contracts

How many House seats will Democrats win in California?

Below 44
0.3%
44
0.5%
45
0.8%
46
2.1%
47
13.0%
48
75.0%
49
3.0%
50 and above
1.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$28.4K traded

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

<43
0.3%
43
0.3%
44
3.4%
45
2.1%
46
4.7%
47
12.5%
48
75.5%
49+
7.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Political landscape in California

Overview

California occupies the western edge of the United States. Oregon lies along its northern border, Nevada on the east, Arizona on the southeast and Mexico's Baja California on the south, with the Pacific Ocean forming its western coast. It has the largest population of any state, at more than 39 million, and ranks third in land area. Sacramento is the capital, and Los Angeles is the largest city and the second most populous in the nation; Greater Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area rank second and fifth among the nation's combined statistical areas. Spanish colonization followed European exploration, the area joined Mexico in 1821, and the United States acquired it in 1848, the same year the gold rush began. California entered the Union in 1850 as the 31st state, admitted as a free state under the Compromise of 1850. Its economy leads all states in size and ranks first worldwide among sub-national economies, with an agricultural industry that tops the nation in output, the nation's busiest port at Los Angeles, the Hollywood film industry and the technology hub of Silicon Valley.

Officeholders

As of October 2026, the governor of California is Gavin Newsom (Democratic), and the state's US senators are Alex Padilla (Democratic) and Adam Schiff (Democratic).

2026 elections

On November 3, 2026, voters in California will decide the race for governor, contests in 52 US House districts and 15 ballot measures. Statewide propositions cover subjects including an affordable housing bond, a permanent tax on high earners, public campaign financing, recall election reform and voter identification, and voters in Los Angeles and Oakland will also elect mayors.

Ballot measures

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
California: Prop 40 wealth tax defeats Props 41 and 42 (compound)
Yes
Yes Likely No 13.5%
Polymarket only
13.5% – – 0.0 0.0 1.3K
California: Proposition 39
Yes
Yes Likely No 22.0%
Kalshi only
– 22.0% – −2.5 −4.0 4.0K
California: Proposition 44 (clinic funding)
Yes
Yes Likely No 23.0%
implied
27.0% – – – – 5.9K
California: Voter ID initiative
Yes
Yes Lean No 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 0.0 pts −2.2 −15.7 40.9K
California: Proposition 4 (public campaign financing)
Yes
Yes Toss-up 45.0%
implied
47.5% – – – – 548
California: Proposition 5 (recall election reform)
Yes
Yes Toss-up 49.0%
implied
46.5% – – – – 2.3K
California: Proposition 37 (homebuying loan program)
Yes
Yes Lean Yes 73.0%
implied
58.0% – – – – 5.7K
California: Proposition 2 (rainy day fund)
Yes
Yes Likely Yes 77.0%
implied
71.0% – – – – 1.3K
California: Proposition 38 (immunology research bond)
Yes
Yes – 58.0% 60.5% – – – 8.3K
California: Proposition 3 (high earner permanent tax)
Yes
Yes – 77.5% 90.0% – – – 5.9K
California: Proposition 45 (expedited environmental review)
Yes
Yes – 39.0% 52.0% – – – 5.4K
California: Proposition 43 (higher local tax vote threshold)
Yes
Yes – 40.5% 27.0% – – – 3.9K
California: Proposition 1 (affordable housing bond)
Yes
Yes – 57.5% 66.0% – – – 3.1K
California: Proposition 42 (retroactive tax prohibition)
Yes
Yes – 50.0% 75.0% – – – 2.5K
California: Proposition 41 (tax spend audit)
Yes
Yes – 62.0% 58.0% – – – 1.9K

Mayoral races

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
Los Angeles Mayor
Runoff on Nov 3
Nithya Raman Toss-up 53.6% 54.4% 53.5% 0.9 pts −0.4 −2.3 44.4M
Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee Safe 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 0.5 pts −0.4 0.0 5.2K