nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CA-40 House 2026

58.4% RKen Calvert leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
54.5%
Kalshi
60.0%
Spread
5.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-40 House.

  1. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte
  2. Races in redrawn districts could determine control of House | California

    Races: Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-Anaheim) are the two incumbents at the top of the ticket in the redrawn CA-40, seeking reelection.

    The Center SquareCalvertKirklandChingKurdianVerlato
  3. ANCA endorses congressional allies; grades members of Congress on pro-Armenian priorities

    The ANCA has endorsed Rep. Young Kim (R-CA-40) and graded her A-, while giving Rep. Ken Calvert a B- in the contest over California’s 40th District seat.

    panorama.amCalvert
  4. California redistricting could shift House control in 2026

    Calvert touts more than $1 billion in federal funding secured for transportation, water, and clean air since 1992.

    ERM Digital USCalvert

Ken Calvert, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RKen Calvert 58.4% 54.5% 60.0% 5.5 pts –
RYoung Kim 42.3% 44.5% 41.0% 3.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-40/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-40">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Ken Calvert

Ken Calvert

Republican U.S. Representative for California's 41st congressional district (since 2023)

Ken Calvert, a Republican who has served in the U.S. House since 1993 and represents California's 41st congressional district, faces fellow Republican incumbent Young Kim in the redrawn 40th district in 2026.

Born 1953 · Corona, California
Young Kim

Young Kim

Republican U.S. Representative for California's 40th congressional district (since 2023)

Young Kim, a Republican who has represented California's 40th congressional district since 2023, faces fellow Republican incumbent Ken Calvert in the redrawn 40th district in 2026 after both advanced from the top-two primary.

Born 1962 · Incheon, South Korea

Each venue's market

Polymarket$16.1K traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Ken Calvert: Counted · bid 52.0% / ask 57.0% · $808 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.3K contracts traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Ken Calvert: Counted · bid 59.0% / ask 61.0% · $2.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ken Calvert

If Ken Calvert wins the 2026 CA-40 House election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

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