House · 3 November 2026

CA-11 House 2026

98.4% DDemocratic Party leads TruthIndex™ · Polymarket onlySafe D

Polymarket: 98.4%
Kalshi: –
Spread: –
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Polymarket prices which party wins in this contest and Kalshi prices which candidate wins. The two are different questions, so each venue's prices are shown separately.

Democratic Party, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. Only one venue lists it, so the figure comes from that venue alone. The thinner line is that venue's own daily price.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™	Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Which party wins · Polymarket
DDemocratic Party	98.4% Polymarket only	98.4%	–	–	–
RRepublican Party	0.1% implied	–	–	–	–
Which candidate wins · Kalshi
Scott Wiener	80.5% Kalshi only	–	80.5%	–	–
Connie Chan	21.0% Kalshi only	–	21.0%	–	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Scott Wiener

Scott Wiener is a candidate for the US House in California's 11th congressional district (CA-11) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Connie Chan

Connie Chan is a candidate for the US House in California's 11th congressional district (CA-11) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Each venue's market

Polymarket$22.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Democratic Party: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.7% · $971 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi187.4K contracts traded

Prices which candidate wins.

Scott Wiener: Counted · bid 80.0% / ask 81.0% · $251.3K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Scott Wiener

If Scott Wiener wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi