House · 3 November 2026

CA-22 House 2026

90.3% DRandy Villegas leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 92.0%
Kalshi: 90.2%
Spread: 1.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CA-22 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

The progressive using diesel prices to his advantage

START YOUR ENGINES: The nationwide angst over soaring diesel prices has made its way into one of California’s most hotly contested House races.

Politico18h ago

Valadao Hoelter

Today
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Calvert received$799,000 from the Calvert Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee to support the incumbent Congressman. He also received more than $138,000 from Grow the Majority and $32,000 from Flexpoint Media.

The Center Square13h agoSánchez Valadao
Yesterday
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Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

asbarez.com21h agoMcBath Beatty Harder Morelle Joyce Neguse Hayes Solis Conaway Reschenthaler Bilirakis Thompson Cisneros Whitesides Latimer Palmer Amo Lucas Burlison Valadao Rouzer Joyce Strong Westerman Pettersen Mast Jack Boyle Sherman Knott Wagner Mejia Adams McDowell Bean Correa Underwood Castor Jackson Wilson Himes Jeffries Davis Tran Bentz Kurdian

Randy Villegas, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DRandy Villegas	90.3%		92.0%	90.2%	1.8 pts	–
RDavid Valadao	9.3%		9.0%	9.3%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ca-22/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ca-22">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

David Valadao

Republican U.S. Representative for California's 22nd congressional district (since 2023)

David Valadao, a Republican who has represented California's 22nd congressional district since 2023 after earlier terms in the 21st, faces Democrat Randy Villegas, a Visalia school board trustee, in the 2026 general election.

Born 1977 · Hanford, California

Full candidate profile →

Randy Villegas

Democratic Trustee on the Visalia school board

Randy Villegas, a Democrat and Visalia school board trustee, faces Republican incumbent David Valadao in the 2026 general election for California's 22nd congressional district after finishing second in the June top-two primary.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

California's 22nd District margin of victory

Valadao, 2+ pts		5.5%
Valadao, 5+ pts		4.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi765 contracts

California's 22nd District margin of victory

Villegas, 1+ pts		87.5%
Villegas, 4+ pts		77.0%
Villegas, 7+ pts		62.5%
Villegas, 10+ pts		42.5%
Villegas, 13+ pts		31.0%
Villegas, 16+ pts		19.0%
Villegas, 19+ pts		9.2%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$27.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Randy Villegas: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 93.0% · $5.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi144.7K contracts traded