US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for CA-13 House.
The 13th District, which stretches from Stockton down State Route 99 to Merced, was one of the country’s closest swing seats until voters last year approved Proposition 50, the congressional redistricting plan designed…
Adam Gray (CA-13) joined California lawmakers in pressing ICE for details about raids and detentions in Mendota.
GrayCongressman Adam Gray announced federal funding for Merced infrastructure projects, including a $3.15 million grant to Bear Creek for flood protection, infrastructure upgrades, and habitat restoration.
GrayCalifornia Representative Adam Gray (CA-13) joined U.S. Senators Padilla and Schiff to demand answers from ICE over rising enforcement activity in Mendota.
GrayThe article reports on ICE raids in California, highlighting backlash from local communities and officials over the impact on schools and construction.
GrayContext: In California political debate over gas prices, GOP attacks tied to past votes on the gas tax and cap-and-trade.
GrayNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAdam Gray | 95.8% | 96.0% | 95.4% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| RKevin Lincoln | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Adam Gray, a Democrat who has represented California's 13th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2025, faces Republican Kevin Lincoln, a former mayor of Stockton, in his 2026 reelection race.
Kevin Lincoln, a Republican who served as mayor of Stockton, California, from 2021 to 2025, faces Democratic incumbent Adam Gray in the 2026 election for California's 13th congressional district.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California's 13th District margin of victory
| Gray, 3+ pts | 95.2% | |
| Gray, 6+ pts | 92.8% | |
| Gray, 9+ pts | 86.5% | |
| Gray, 12+ pts | – | |
| Gray, 15+ pts | – | |
| Gray, 18+ pts | – | |
| Gray, 21+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Gray, 24+ pts | 20.0% | |
| Gray, 27+ pts | 10.4% |
CA-13 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 5%+ | 72.0% implied | |
| Republican 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 5-10% | – | |
| Democrat 10-15% | – | |
| Democrat 15-20% | – | |
| Democrat 20-25% | – | |
| Democrat 25%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Adam Gray: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 97.0% · $4.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Adam Gray: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 96.5% · $1.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Adam Gray
If the House member sworn in for CA-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
