House · 3 November 2026

CA-05 House 2026

93.3% RTom McClintock leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 93.0%
Kalshi: 94.0%
Spread: 1.1 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.9
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Tom McClintock, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTom McClintock	93.3%		93.0%	94.0%	1.1 pts	–
DMichael Masuda	6.0%		6.0%	6.0%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Michael Masuda

Democratic

Michael Masuda, a Democrat and engineer, faces Republican incumbent Tom McClintock in the 2026 general election for California's 5th congressional district after finishing second in the top-two primary.

Full candidate profile →

Tom McClintock

Republican U.S. Representative for California's 5th congressional district (since 2009)

Tom McClintock, a Republican who has represented California in the U.S. House since 2009 after serving in both chambers of the state legislature, faces Democrat Michael Masuda in the 2026 race for California's 5th congressional district.

Born 1956 · Westchester County, New York

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi200 contracts

California's 5th District margin of victory

McClintock, 3+ pts		87.9%
McClintock, 6+ pts		79.0%
McClintock, 9+ pts		66.0%
McClintock, 12+ pts		52.0%
McClintock, 15+ pts		37.0%
McClintock, 18+ pts		24.0%
McClintock, 21+ pts		11.3%
McClintock, 24+ pts		6.3%
McClintock, 27+ pts		4.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$264 traded

CA-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		–
Republican 0-5%		–
Republican 5-10%		–
Republican 10-15%		–
Republican 15-20%		–
Republican 20-25%		–
Republican 25-30%		–
Republican 30-35%		5.5%
Republican 35%+		5.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tom McClintock: Counted · bid 92.0% / ask 94.0% · $3.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi20.1K contracts traded