Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

California: Voter ID initiative

26.0% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™Lean No

Polymarket: 26.0%
Kalshi: 26.0%
Spread: 0.0 pts
24h: −2.2
7 days: −15.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

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The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	26.0%		26.0%	26.0%	0.0 pts	−2.2

Polymarket Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$10.4K traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 22.0% / ask 30.0% · $99 within 5 pts

The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi30.5K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 24.0% / ask 28.0% · $263 within 5 pts

If the 2026 California Voter ID initiative passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi