Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Florida: Amendment 3 (Save Our Homes property tax)

42.0% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™Toss-up

Polymarket: 44.0%
Kalshi: 41.5%
Spread: 2.5 pts
24h: +1.9
7 days: +1.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	42.0%		44.0%	41.5%	2.5 pts	+1.9

Polymarket Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$2.4K traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 42.0% / ask 46.0% · $120 within 5 pts

Florida Amendment 3, also referred to as "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" and the "Homestead Tax Exemptions, Property Assessments, and Spending Restrictions Amendment" is a Florida legislatively referred constitutional amendment currently scheduled for voting as a ballot measure on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by the numerical threshold of voters in Florida required for it to pass at the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Florida, including the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi43.0K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 41.0% / ask 42.0% · $425 within 5 pts

If Florida Amendment 3, “Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes” passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi