nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

FL-07 House 2026

65.4% RRyan Elijah leads TruthIndex™Lean R
Polymarket
64.5%
Kalshi
66.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-07 House.

  1. With anger spreading over Iran war, Democrats hope to flip Republican seats with veterans' help

    Democratic veterans are trying to make that argument in other races for Republican-held seats.

    Plainview HeraldDalton
  2. Mel Martinez crosses party lines to endorse Bale Dalton for Congress

    Former U.S. Senator Mel Martinez, a Republican, endorsed Bale Dalton, a Democratic candidate, in Florida’s 7th Congressional District race.

    Florida PoliticsDaltonRogers
  3. List of Orlando Sentinel endorsements for 2026 general election

    Those races for which we have made endorsements are listed below.

    Orlando SentinelDalton

Ryan Elijah, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RRyan Elijah 65.4% 64.5% 66.5% 2.0 pts –
DBale Dalton 34.8% 35.5% 33.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Bale Dalton

Democratic

Bale Dalton, a Democrat and former NASA chief of staff, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Florida's 7th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican Ryan Elijah in the November 3 general election.

Ryan Elijah

Republican

Ryan Elijah, a Republican and former WOFL reporter, defeated incumbent Cory Mills in the primary for Florida's 7th congressional district and faces Democrat Bale Dalton in the November 3, 2026, general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.3K contracts

Florida's 7th District margin of victory

Elijah, 2+ pts
60.0%
Elijah, 5+ pts
40.5%
Elijah, 8+ pts
27.5%
Elijah, 11+ pts
16.5%
Elijah, 14+ pts
8.7%
Elijah, 17+ pts
4.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi5.1K contracts

Florida's 7th District margin of victory

Dalton, 1+ pts
29.0%
Dalton, 4+ pts
17.0%
Dalton, 7+ pts
8.0%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$12.3K traded

FL-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
1.6%
Republican 15-18%
2.8%
Republican 12-15%
8.2%
Republican 9-12%
3.1%
Republican 6-9%
5.0%
Republican 3-6%
18.4%
Republican 0-3%
23.6%
Democrat 0-3%
15.4%
Democrat 3-6%
9.5%
Democrat 6%+
11.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$28.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ryan Elijah: Counted · bid 64.0% / ask 65.0% · $37.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi40.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Ryan Elijah: Counted · bid 66.0% / ask 67.0% · $30.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Ryan Elijah

If the House member sworn in for FL-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Florida

  1. Florida Senate (special)R91%
  2. Florida GovernorR79%
  3. FL-01 HouseR96%
  4. FL-02 HouseR92%
  5. FL-03 HouseR95%
  6. FL-04 HouseR86%
  7. FL-05 HouseR93%
  8. FL-06 HouseR97%