US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-16 House.
Kruse has not endorsed Democrats for the commission. But he has endorsed District 16 congressional candidate Kelly Kirschner and co-chairs the group Republicans for Jolly, which has thrown its support behind the…
Her Republican platform focuses heavily on economic and immigration issues, according to her campaign website.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSydney Gruters | 82.9% | 82.0% | 83.0% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DKelly Kirschner | 16.6% | 17.0% | 16.5% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Kelly Kirschner, a former mayor of Sarasota, is the Democratic nominee for the open 16th congressional district seat in Florida in 2026, facing Republican Sydney Gruters in the November 3 general election.
Sydney Gruters, a former executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation, is the Republican nominee for the open 16th congressional district seat in Florida in 2026 against Democrat Kelly Kirschner.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 16th District margin of victory
| Gruters, 1+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Gruters, 4+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Gruters, 7+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Gruters, 10+ pts | 35.5% | |
| Gruters, 13+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Gruters, 16+ pts | 13.8% | |
| Gruters, 19+ pts | 6.8% | |
| Gruters, 22+ pts | 3.8% |
FL-16 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 18%+ | 9.8% | |
| Republican 15-18% | – | |
| Republican 12-15% | 4.9% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 5.2% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 20.5% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 20.7% | |
| Republican 0-3% | – | |
| Democrat 0-3% | – | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 6%+ | 4.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Sydney Gruters: Counted · bid 81.0% / ask 83.0% · $3.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Sydney Gruters: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 84.0% · $27.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Sydney Gruters
If the House member sworn in for FL-16 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
