House · 3 November 2026

FL-14 House 2026

68.5% DKathy Castor leads TruthIndex™Lean D

Polymarket: 69.5%
Kalshi: 68.0%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +2.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for FL-14 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Senate money race heats up

FLORIDA OFFSHORE FIGHT: With several senior members of Florida’s House delegation retiring, freshman GOP Rep.

Politico6h ago

Patronis

Castor

Yesterday
Democratic candidates dominate Q3 fundraising
Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) is highlighted as an example of GOP incumbents who were outpaced in fundraising in the third quarter.

Punchbowl News17h agoJames Castor Ciscomani
ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

asbarez.com21h agoMcBath Beatty Harder Morelle Joyce Neguse Hayes Solis Conaway Reschenthaler Bilirakis Thompson Cisneros Whitesides Latimer Palmer Amo Lucas Burlison Valadao Rouzer Joyce Strong Westerman Pettersen Mast Jack Boyle Sherman Knott Wagner Mejia Adams McDowell Bean Correa Underwood Castor Jackson Wilson Himes Jeffries Davis Tran Bentz Kurdian
Wednesday, Oct 14
Sen. Markey, Leader Schumer, Reps. Matsui, Menendez, Meng Lead Colleagues in Demanding Trump FCC Withdraw Proposal to Undermine E-Rate Program
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.

markey.senate.govOfficialYesterdayUnderwood Castor Courtney Costa Hayes Cleaver Foster McCollum Balint Salinas

Kathy Castor, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DKathy Castor	68.5%		69.5%	68.0%	1.5 pts	–
RMike Beltran	31.1%		30.5%	31.5%	1.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/fl-14/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-fl-14">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Kathy Castor

Democratic U.S. Representative for Florida's 14th congressional district (since 2007)

Kathy Castor, a Democrat who has represented the Tampa-based 14th congressional district of Florida in the U.S. House since 2007, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Mike Beltran, a former state representative.

Born 1966 · Miami, Florida

Full candidate profile →

Mike Beltran

Republican

Mike Beltran, a Republican attorney who represented the 70th district in the Florida House of Representatives from 2018 to 2024, is the Republican nominee for Florida's 14th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor.

Born 1984 · New York City, New York

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.2K contracts

Florida's 14th District margin of victory

Castor, 2+ pts		62.5%
Castor, 5+ pts		49.5%
Castor, 8+ pts		36.0%
Castor, 11+ pts		23.5%
Castor, 14+ pts		15.5%
Castor, 17+ pts		8.5%
Castor, 20+ pts		4.9%
Castor, 23+ pts		3.7%
Castor, 26+ pts		5.2% implied
Castor, 29+ pts		4.7% implied
Castor, 32+ pts		4.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$68.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Kathy Castor: Counted · bid 69.0% / ask 70.0% · $30.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi298.7K contracts traded