Florida 2026 elections
Florida, the third most populous state, holds a special US Senate election, a governor's race, 28 US House contests, 3 ballot measures and 2 mayoral races on November 3, 2026.
- Capital
- Tallahassee
- Largest city
- Jacksonville
- Population
- 23.46M (2025 estimate)
- Statehood
- 27th state (March 3, 1845)
Current officeholders
House
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-22 House | DPia Dandiya | Toss-up | 54.2% | 54.0% | 54.5% | 2.0 pts | −0.3 | −0.1 | 188.2K | ||
| FL-27 House | RMaría Elvira Salazar | Lean R | 63.8% | 62.5% | 65.5% | 3.0 pts | −0.3 | +0.6 | 139.7K | ||
| FL-07 House | RRyan Elijah | Lean R | 65.4% | 64.0% | 66.5% | 2.5 pts | −0.3 | −1.1 | 69.4K | ||
| FL-14 House | DKathy Castor | Lean D | 68.5% | 69.5% | 68.0% | 1.5 pts | +0.7 | +2.0 | 367.7K | ||
| FL-09 House | RDan Green | Lean R | 70.0% | 69.5% | 70.5% | 1.0 pts | −0.1 | −1.2 | 119.3K | ||
| FL-13 House | RAnna Paulina Luna | Lean R | 73.8% | 73.5% | 74.5% | 1.0 pts | −1.0 | +0.3 | 61.0K | ||
| FL-25 House | DJared Moskowitz | Likely D | 79.9% | 79.5% | 81.0% | 1.5 pts | +1.2 | +4.6 | 346.9K | ||
| FL-16 House | RSydney Gruters | Likely R | 82.8% | 82.0% | 83.0% | 1.0 pts | −0.1 | −0.2 | 44.4K | ||
| FL-04 House | RAaron Bean | Likely R | 86.4% | 86.0% | 86.5% | 0.5 pts | +0.1 | +0.4 | 39.2K | ||
| FL-11 House | RJoe Strada | Likely R | 87.9% | 90.5% | 87.5% | 3.0 pts | +0.2 | +0.6 | 39.8K | ||
| FL-26 House | RMario Díaz-Balart | Likely R | 88.6% | 88.5% | 89.1% | 0.6 pts | 0.0 | +0.3 | 97.8K | ||
| FL-21 House | RBrian Mast | Safe R | 92.1% | 92.5% | 91.7% | 0.8 pts | −0.7 | +2.3 | 34.8K | ||
| FL-02 House | RAustin Rogers | Safe R | 92.2% | 92.5% | 91.7% | 0.8 pts | +0.2 | +1.2 | 27.2K | ||
| FL-05 House | RJohn Rutherford | Safe R | 92.4% | 92.0% | 93.0% | 1.6 pts | +0.4 | +1.0 | 29.8K | ||
| FL-18 House | RScott Franklin | Safe R | 92.9% | 93.0% | 92.8% | 0.8 pts | −0.7 | +1.7 | 72.5K | ||
| FL-12 House | RGus Bilirakis | Safe R | 93.5% | 93.5% | 93.5% | 0.9 pts | +4.3 | +6.8 | 93.9K | ||
| FL-28 House | RCarlos Giménez | Safe R | 93.7% | 94.5% | 92.4% | 2.1 pts | −0.6 | −0.5 | 75.5K | ||
| FL-08 House | RMike Haridopolos | Safe R | 94.2% | 94.5% | 93.8% | 0.8 pts | +0.1 | +0.5 | 70.3K | ||
| FL-23 House | DLois Frankel | Safe D | 94.2% | 95.8% | 94.0% | 1.8 pts | −0.3 | −1.3 | 45.1K | ||
| FL-15 House | RLaurel Lee | Safe R | 94.3% | 96.1% | 94.0% | 2.3 pts | −0.4 | +3.1 | 49.4K | ||
| FL-19 House | RJim Schwartzel | Safe R | 94.7% | 94.5% | 95.2% | 1.3 pts | +0.1 | +0.1 | 35.4K | ||
| FL-03 House | RKat Cammack | Safe R | 95.0% | 94.5% | 95.3% | 0.9 pts | +0.5 | +0.6 | 50.6K | ||
| FL-17 House | RGreg Steube | Safe R | 95.5% | 95.3% | 95.5% | 0.6 pts | −0.2 | +1.0 | 38.1K | ||
| FL-24 House | DOliver Gilbert | Safe D | 95.7% | 95.6% | 98.1% | 2.5 pts | −0.2 | −0.9 | 65.2K | ||
| FL-01 House | RJimmy Patronis | Safe R | 96.3% | 95.5% | 96.8% | 1.3 pts | −0.1 | +0.6 | 123.9K | ||
| FL-06 House | RRandy Fine | Safe R | 96.5% | 95.5% | 97.8% | 2.2 pts | +0.4 | −0.5 | 42.5K | ||
| FL-20 House | DDebbie Wasserman Schultz | Safe D | 97.3% | 97.4% | 97.0% | 0.8 pts | 0.0 | −0.4 | 50.4K | ||
| FL-10 House | DMaxwell Frost | Safe D | 97.6% | 96.8% | 97.8% | 1.0 pts | −0.2 | +0.5 | 60.7K |
House seats Democrats win in Florida
Each venue's market, shown on its own.
Kalshi4.9K contracts
How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?
| Below 4 | 1.0% implied | |
| 4 | 11.5% | |
| 5 | 9.0% | |
| 6 | 14.0% | |
| 7 | 16.0% | |
| 8 | 11.5% | |
| 9 | 9.5% | |
| 10 | 8.5% | |
| Above 10 | 15.5% |
Polymarket$13.5K traded
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?
| <4 | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 10.8% | |
| 5 | 6.0% | |
| 6 | 11.0% | |
| 7 | 17.5% | |
| 8 | 12.7% | |
| 9 | 11.0% | |
| 10 | 11.5% | |
| 11 | 10.0% | |
| 12+ | 12.5% |
Political landscape in Florida
Overview
Florida lies in the Southeastern United States. It shares land borders with Alabama on the northwest and Georgia on the north, faces the Gulf of Mexico on the west and the Atlantic Ocean on the east, and meets the Straits of Florida on the south. Most of the state occupies a peninsula, and its coastline is the longest in the contiguous United States. With more than 23 million residents it ranks third in population and 22nd in area. Jacksonville is the most populous city, Tallahassee is the capital, and the Miami metropolitan area, which includes West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, ranks as the largest urban region. Spain claimed the territory after Juan Ponce de León landed in 1513 and founded St. Augustine in 1565; the United States acquired it in 1821, and Florida gained statehood on March 3, 1845, as the 27th state. Tourism, real estate, agriculture, hospitality and transportation drive an economy that ranks fourth among the states, and visitor attractions include Miami Beach, Walt Disney World and the Kennedy Space Center.
Officeholders
As of October 2026, the governor of Florida is Ron DeSantis (Republican), and the state's US senators are Rick Scott (Republican) and Ashley Moody (Republican).
2026 elections
On November 3, 2026, voters in Florida will decide a special election for a US Senate seat, the race for governor, contests in 28 US House districts and 3 ballot measures. The three amendments include one on Save Our Homes property tax rules, and St. Petersburg and Tallahassee will also elect mayors.
Ballot measures
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida: Amendment 3 (Save Our Homes property tax) Yes |
Yes | Toss-up | 41.9% | 42.5% | 41.5% | 1.0 pts | +1.7 | +1.6 | 45.4K | ||
| Florida: Amendment 2 Yes |
Yes | Lean Yes | 67.5% Kalshi only |
– | 67.5% | – | −0.5 | 0.0 | 9.8K | ||
| Florida: Amendment 1 Yes |
Yes | Lean Yes | 69.5% Kalshi only |
– | 69.5% | – | 0.0 | 0.0 | 325 |
Mayoral races
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallahassee Mayor First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required |
Loranne Ausley | Toss-up | 54.1% | 54.5% | 53.0% | 3.2 pts | −0.5 | +2.6 | 160.9K | ||
| St. Petersburg Mayor First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required |
Charlie Crist | Safe | 90.1% | 90.0% | 91.5% | 1.5 pts | +0.1 | +2.1 | 73.6K |