Updated Oct 16, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
3 November 2026

Florida 2026 elections

Florida, the third most populous state, holds a special US Senate election, a governor's race, 28 US House contests, 3 ballot measures and 2 mayoral races on November 3, 2026.

Flag of FloridaTemplate:Brendon Tiana, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Capital
Tallahassee
Largest city
Jacksonville
Population
23.46M (2025 estimate)
Statehood
27th state (March 3, 1845)

Current officeholders

Governor 2026 Ballot
R Ron DeSantis
U.S. Senator Term ends later
R Rick Scott
U.S. Senator 2026 Ballot
R Ashley Moody

House

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
FL-22 House DPia Dandiya Toss-up 54.2% 54.0% 54.5% 2.0 pts −0.3 −0.1 188.2K
FL-27 House RMaría Elvira Salazar Lean R 63.8% 62.5% 65.5% 3.0 pts −0.3 +0.6 139.7K
FL-07 House RRyan Elijah Lean R 65.4% 64.0% 66.5% 2.5 pts −0.3 −1.1 69.4K
FL-14 House DKathy Castor Lean D 68.5% 69.5% 68.0% 1.5 pts +0.7 +2.0 367.7K
FL-09 House RDan Green Lean R 70.0% 69.5% 70.5% 1.0 pts −0.1 −1.2 119.3K
FL-13 House RAnna Paulina Luna Lean R 73.8% 73.5% 74.5% 1.0 pts −1.0 +0.3 61.0K
FL-25 House DJared Moskowitz Likely D 79.9% 79.5% 81.0% 1.5 pts +1.2 +4.6 346.9K
FL-16 House RSydney Gruters Likely R 82.8% 82.0% 83.0% 1.0 pts −0.1 −0.2 44.4K
FL-04 House RAaron Bean Likely R 86.4% 86.0% 86.5% 0.5 pts +0.1 +0.4 39.2K
FL-11 House RJoe Strada Likely R 87.9% 90.5% 87.5% 3.0 pts +0.2 +0.6 39.8K
FL-26 House RMario Díaz-Balart Likely R 88.6% 88.5% 89.1% 0.6 pts 0.0 +0.3 97.8K
FL-21 House RBrian Mast Safe R 92.1% 92.5% 91.7% 0.8 pts −0.7 +2.3 34.8K
FL-02 House RAustin Rogers Safe R 92.2% 92.5% 91.7% 0.8 pts +0.2 +1.2 27.2K
FL-05 House RJohn Rutherford Safe R 92.4% 92.0% 93.0% 1.6 pts +0.4 +1.0 29.8K
FL-18 House RScott Franklin Safe R 92.9% 93.0% 92.8% 0.8 pts −0.7 +1.7 72.5K
FL-12 House RGus Bilirakis Safe R 93.5% 93.5% 93.5% 0.9 pts +4.3 +6.8 93.9K
FL-28 House RCarlos Giménez Safe R 93.7% 94.5% 92.4% 2.1 pts −0.6 −0.5 75.5K
FL-08 House RMike Haridopolos Safe R 94.2% 94.5% 93.8% 0.8 pts +0.1 +0.5 70.3K
FL-23 House DLois Frankel Safe D 94.2% 95.8% 94.0% 1.8 pts −0.3 −1.3 45.1K
FL-15 House RLaurel Lee Safe R 94.3% 96.1% 94.0% 2.3 pts −0.4 +3.1 49.4K
FL-19 House RJim Schwartzel Safe R 94.7% 94.5% 95.2% 1.3 pts +0.1 +0.1 35.4K
FL-03 House RKat Cammack Safe R 95.0% 94.5% 95.3% 0.9 pts +0.5 +0.6 50.6K
FL-17 House RGreg Steube Safe R 95.5% 95.3% 95.5% 0.6 pts −0.2 +1.0 38.1K
FL-24 House DOliver Gilbert Safe D 95.7% 95.6% 98.1% 2.5 pts −0.2 −0.9 65.2K
FL-01 House RJimmy Patronis Safe R 96.3% 95.5% 96.8% 1.3 pts −0.1 +0.6 123.9K
FL-06 House RRandy Fine Safe R 96.5% 95.5% 97.8% 2.2 pts +0.4 −0.5 42.5K
FL-20 House DDebbie Wasserman Schultz Safe D 97.3% 97.4% 97.0% 0.8 pts 0.0 −0.4 50.4K
FL-10 House DMaxwell Frost Safe D 97.6% 96.8% 97.8% 1.0 pts −0.2 +0.5 60.7K

House seats Democrats win in Florida

Each venue's market, shown on its own.

Kalshi4.9K contracts

How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?

Below 4
1.0%
implied
4
11.5%
5
9.0%
6
14.0%
7
16.0%
8
11.5%
9
9.5%
10
8.5%
Above 10
15.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.5K traded

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?

<4
0.5%
4
10.8%
5
6.0%
6
11.0%
7
17.5%
8
12.7%
9
11.0%
10
11.5%
11
10.0%
12+
12.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Political landscape in Florida

Overview

Florida lies in the Southeastern United States. It shares land borders with Alabama on the northwest and Georgia on the north, faces the Gulf of Mexico on the west and the Atlantic Ocean on the east, and meets the Straits of Florida on the south. Most of the state occupies a peninsula, and its coastline is the longest in the contiguous United States. With more than 23 million residents it ranks third in population and 22nd in area. Jacksonville is the most populous city, Tallahassee is the capital, and the Miami metropolitan area, which includes West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, ranks as the largest urban region. Spain claimed the territory after Juan Ponce de León landed in 1513 and founded St. Augustine in 1565; the United States acquired it in 1821, and Florida gained statehood on March 3, 1845, as the 27th state. Tourism, real estate, agriculture, hospitality and transportation drive an economy that ranks fourth among the states, and visitor attractions include Miami Beach, Walt Disney World and the Kennedy Space Center.

Officeholders

As of October 2026, the governor of Florida is Ron DeSantis (Republican), and the state's US senators are Rick Scott (Republican) and Ashley Moody (Republican).

2026 elections

On November 3, 2026, voters in Florida will decide a special election for a US Senate seat, the race for governor, contests in 28 US House districts and 3 ballot measures. The three amendments include one on Save Our Homes property tax rules, and St. Petersburg and Tallahassee will also elect mayors.

Ballot measures

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
Florida: Amendment 3 (Save Our Homes property tax)
Yes
Yes Toss-up 41.9% 42.5% 41.5% 1.0 pts +1.7 +1.6 45.4K
Florida: Amendment 2
Yes
Yes Lean Yes 67.5%
Kalshi only
– 67.5% – −0.5 0.0 9.8K
Florida: Amendment 1
Yes
Yes Lean Yes 69.5%
Kalshi only
– 69.5% – 0.0 0.0 325

Mayoral races

ContestLeaderRatingTruthIndex™ PolymarketKalshiSpread24h7 daysVolumeTrend
Tallahassee Mayor
First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required
Loranne Ausley Toss-up 54.1% 54.5% 53.0% 3.2 pts −0.5 +2.6 160.9K
St. Petersburg Mayor
First round Aug 18; runoff Nov 3 if required
Charlie Crist Safe 90.1% 90.0% 91.5% 1.5 pts +0.1 +2.1 73.6K