Top story
Salazar and Rodriguez make affordability and immigration central in District 27 race
Eliott Rodriguez is the Democratic challenger in Florida’s 27th Congressional District race against incumbent Michelle Salazar.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
FL-27 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 62.5%
- Kalshi
- 65.5%
- Spread
- 3.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.4
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for FL-27 House.
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Hakeem Jeffries to campaign with Eliott Rodriguez in Miami
Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic House leader, will campaign with Eliott Rodriguez in Miami for Florida’s 27th Congressional District race against Republican incumbent María Elvira Salazar.
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Maria Elvira Salazar, Eliott Rodriguez and the issues they campaign for in race for Florida's 27th District - CBS Miami
The article covers U.S. House race for Florida’s 27th District between incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar and challenger Eliott Rodriguez.
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Daniella Levine Cava & Eileen Higgins Endorse Eliott Rodriguez · The Floridian
Eliott Rodriguez, the Democratic challenger in Florida’s 27th Congressional District (FL-27), has received endorsements from two Miami-Dade leaders: County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava and City of Miami Mayor Eileen…
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Candidates in Florida’s District 27 discuss what they see as most important issues - CBS Miami
In the District 27 race for Florida’s U.S. House seat, Democrat Eliott Rodriguez and Republican incumbent María Elvira Salazar discuss the district’s top issues.
No story this week names this candidate.
María Elvira Salazar, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMaría Elvira Salazar | 63.7% | 62.5% | 65.5% | 3.0 pts | – | |
| DEliott Rodriguez | 34.0% | 34.5% | 33.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Eliott Rodriguez
Democratic
Eliott Rodriguez, a Democrat and former television news anchor who spent 25 years at CBS News Miami, is his party's nominee against Republican U.S. Representative María Elvira Salazar in Florida's 27th congressional district in 2026.
María Elvira Salazar
Republican U.S. Representative for Florida's 27th congressional district (since 2021)
María Elvira Salazar, a Republican and former television journalist who has represented Florida's 27th congressional district since 2021, faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, also a television journalist, in her 2026 re-election race.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1.8K contracts
Florida's 27th District margin of victory
| Salazar, 1+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Salazar, 3+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Salazar, 6+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Salazar, 9+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Salazar, 12+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Salazar, 15+ pts | 7.8% |
Kalshi4.0K contracts
Florida's 27th District margin of victory
| Rodriguez, 3+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Rodriguez, 6+ pts | 12.8% | |
| Rodriguez, 9+ pts | 6.4% |
Polymarket$18.2K traded
FL-27 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 18%+ | 5.0% | |
| Republican 15-18% | – | |
| Republican 12-15% | 1.4% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 3.3% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 14.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 4.6% | |
| Democrat 6%+ | 9.7% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$38.2K traded
Prices which party wins.
María Elvira Salazar: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $44.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi101.6K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
María Elvira Salazar: Counted · bid 65.0% / ask 66.0% · $29.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: María Elvira Salazar
If the House member sworn in for FL-27 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Florida
- Florida Senate (special)R91%
- Florida GovernorR79%
- FL-01 HouseR96%
- FL-02 HouseR92%
- FL-03 HouseR95%
- FL-04 HouseR86%
- FL-05 HouseR93%
- FL-06 HouseR97%