US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for FL-09 House.
The article critiques NTB’s push for renewable energy under the leadership of Iqbal-Dinda, highlighting that NTB is promoted as a hub for solar energy and green farming, but projects remain policy monuments rather than…
“25 unions now back Darren Soto’s re-election to Congress” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics: Unions throughout Florida’s 9th Congressional District are rallying around U.S. Rep.
SotoEvent: The 16th International Conference on Green Technology (ICGT 16) and Green Technology Expo 2026, organized by FST UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang.
Unions throughout Florida’s 9th Congressional District are rallying around U.S. Rep. Darren Sotoas he seeks re-election on a new congressional map.
SotoThe global market is increasingly prioritizing green energy products, with higher value attached to products produced using clean energy.
This Panthers podcast features host Chris Ellis with commentator Jono Bullard, former Panthers goaltender Dan Green, and BBC Radio Nottingham's Chris Gadsby.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDan Green | 70.0% | 69.5% | 70.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DDarren Soto | 29.3% | 29.5% | 29.0% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Dan Green, a Republican and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, is his party's nominee for Florida's 9th congressional district in 2026 against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto.
Darren Soto, a Democrat who has represented Florida's 9th congressional district since 2017, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Dan Green, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and Navy reserve officer.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida's 9th District margin of victory
| Soto, 4+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Soto, 7+ pts | 13.9% | |
| Soto, 10+ pts | 10.9% | |
| Soto, 13+ pts | 9.2% | |
| Soto, 16+ pts | 8.1% | |
| Soto, 19+ pts | 6.9% | |
| Soto, 22+ pts | 4.9% | |
| Soto, 25+ pts | 3.6% | |
| Soto, 28+ pts | 5.3% implied |
Prices which party wins.
Dan Green: Counted · bid 69.0% / ask 70.0% · $34.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Dan Green: Counted · bid 70.0% / ask 71.0% · $31.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Dan Green
If the House member sworn in for FL-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
