Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Virginia: Question 1 (reproductive freedom)

89.5% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™Likely Yes

Polymarket: 89.5%
Kalshi: 91.3%
Spread: 1.8 pts
24h: −1.0
7 days: −1.4
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	89.5%		89.5%	91.3%	1.8 pts	−1.0

Polymarket Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$1.8K traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 88.0% / ask 91.0% · $1.1K within 5 pts

Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.” If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.0K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 95.6% · $15 within 5 pts

If the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment, which would establish a fundamental right to abortion, contraception, and IVF in Virginia passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi