House · 3 November 2026

VA-01 House 2026

56.2% DShannon Taylor leads TruthIndex™Toss-up

Polymarket: 58.0%
Kalshi: 55.5%
Spread: 2.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.9
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Shannon Taylor, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DShannon Taylor	56.2%		58.0%	55.5%	2.5 pts	–
RRob Wittman	43.9%		42.0%	44.5%	2.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Rob Wittman

Republican U.S. Representative for Virginia's 1st congressional district (since 2007)

Rob Wittman, a Republican who has represented Virginia's 1st congressional district since 2007, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County.

Born 1959 · Washington, D.C.

Full candidate profile →

Shannon Taylor

Democratic Commonwealth's Attorney for Henrico County, Virginia (since 2012)

Shannon Taylor, a Democrat who has served as commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County, Virginia, since 2012, faces Republican incumbent Rob Wittman for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2026.

Born 1967

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.3K contracts

Virginia's 1st District margin of victory

Wittman, 2+ pts		35.5%
Wittman, 5+ pts		21.5%
Wittman, 8+ pts		10.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi1.1K contracts

Virginia's 1st District margin of victory

Taylor, 1+ pts		48.0%
Taylor, 4+ pts		31.5%
Taylor, 7+ pts		17.5%
Taylor, 10+ pts		7.9%
Taylor, 13+ pts		4.3%
Taylor, 16+ pts		3.3%
Taylor, 19+ pts		2.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$21.0K traded

VA-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		7.2%
Republican 9-12%		1.6%
Republican 6-9%		4.3%
Republican 3-6%		21.7%
Republican 0-3%		13.5%
Democrat 0-3%		17.5%
Democrat 3-6%		21.0%
Democrat 6-9%		5.3%
Democrat 9-12%		5.8%
Democrat 12%+		4.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$66.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Shannon Taylor: Counted · bid 57.0% / ask 59.0% · $11.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi266.7K contracts traded