US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for VA-04 House.
The EPA “misapprehends its own mission” to protect human health and the environment, the group wrote in a letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, by its decision to exclude data center power generation facilities that…
McClellanWashington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW), and Representative Jennifer McClellan (D-VA-04), last month launched a bicameral…
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJennifer McClellan | 98.2% | 97.9% | 98.8% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| RRobert Murray | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.1 pts | – |
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Jennifer McClellan, a Democrat who has represented Virginia's 4th congressional district since 2023 and is the first Black woman elected to Congress from Virginia, faces Republican Robert Murray in 2026.
Robert Murray, a Republican and former CIO advisory leader for IBM, faces Democratic incumbent Jennifer McClellan in the 2026 election for Virginia's 4th congressional district.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Virginia's 4th District margin of victory
| McClellan, 12+ pts | 95.5% implied | |
| McClellan, 15+ pts | 95.5% implied | |
| McClellan, 18+ pts | 97.0% | |
| McClellan, 21+ pts | 95.3% implied | |
| McClellan, 24+ pts | 94.8% implied | |
| McClellan, 27+ pts | 93.7% implied | |
| McClellan, 30+ pts | 95.5% | |
| McClellan, 33+ pts | 90.3% | |
| McClellan, 36+ pts | 80.5% | |
| McClellan, 39+ pts | 67.5% | |
| McClellan, 42+ pts | 50.5% | |
| McClellan, 45+ pts | 33.5% | |
| McClellan, 48+ pts | 18.5% | |
| McClellan, 51+ pts | 8.0% | |
| McClellan, 54+ pts | 4.1% |
VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 3.8% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 5-15% | 1.3% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 3.2% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 3.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 6.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 3.9% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 14.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 32.5% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 42.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Jennifer McClellan: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 98.5% · $621 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jennifer McClellan: Counted · bid 98.0% / ask 99.5% · $325 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jennifer McClellan
If the House member sworn in for VA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
