US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for VA-05 House.
The Cavalier Daily reports that the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted Tom Perriello to discuss artificial intelligence and the responsibilities of Congress.
McGuireThe briefing centers on Virginia’s 5th Congressional District race, where Republican incumbent John McGuire faces Democrat Tom Perriello.
McGuireU.S. Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.), representing Virginia’s 5th District, hosted a roundtable in Lynchburg with Liberty University students and local law enforcement to discuss crime and AI-related concerns.
McGuireSummary tailored to your query: The provided material concerns Virginia’s 5th Congressional District (McGuire, Perriello, Harvey) and does not mention Arthur Purves or VA-11 House.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJohn McGuire | 71.6% | 70.5% | 72.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DTom Perriello | 28.5% | 29.5% | 27.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
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John McGuire, a Republican and former Navy SEAL who has represented Virginia's 5th congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Tom Perriello, a former U.S. representative for the district.
Tom Perriello, a Democrat who represented Virginia's 5th congressional district from 2009 to 2011 and later served as U.S. special envoy for Sudan, faces Republican incumbent John McGuire for the seat in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Virginia's 5th District margin of victory
| Perriello, 3+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Perriello, 6+ pts | 10.0% | |
| Perriello, 9+ pts | 6.3% | |
| Perriello, 12+ pts | 6.9% implied | |
| Perriello, 15+ pts | 5.6% implied | |
| Perriello, 18+ pts | 4.9% implied | |
| Perriello, 21+ pts | 4.6% implied |
VA-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 25%+ | 0.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | – | |
| Republican 15-20% | – | |
| Republican 10-15% | – | |
| Republican 5-10% | – | |
| Republican 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 5%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
John McGuire: Counted · bid 70.0% / ask 71.0% · $24.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
John McGuire: Counted · bid 72.0% / ask 73.0% · $32.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: John McGuire
If the House member sworn in for VA-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
