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House · 3 November 2026
VA-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.4%
- Kalshi
- 98.3%
- Spread
- 2.8 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.2
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for VA-03 House.
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Governor Wilder honored as Richmond Crusade for Voters marks 70 years of advocacy - L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs - Virginia Commonwealth University
The page covers a event honoring L. Douglas Wilder and celebrating the Richmond Crusade for Voters’ 70 years of advocacy. Key participants included U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, U.S. Rep. Jennifer McClellan, Del.
wilder.vcu.edu
Scott -
With anger spreading over Iran war, Democrats hope to flip Colorado GOP seats with veterans' help
The article discusses Democrats targeting Colorado GOP seats with help from military veterans as a response to national tensions, including the Iran war and upheaval in the armed forces.
Sentinel ColoradoScott -
Uncovering Fraud in Public Comments: Lawmakers Demand Action on 401(k) Alts Rule (2026)
The article reports that Democratic lawmakers, including Rep. Bobby Scott (representing Virginia’s 3rd District), have urged an official probe into possible fraud in public comments supporting the Labor Department’s…
wolcottcongregational.orgScott -
Workforce News 2026October16
The Direct CARE Opportunity Act of 2026 was introduced on October 1 by House Education and Workforce Ranking Member Bobby Scott (D-VA) along with Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) and Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV).
No story this week names this candidate.
Bobby Scott, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBobby Scott | 96.6% | 95.4% | 98.3% | 2.8 pts | – | |
| REdwin Rivera | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Bobby Scott
Democratic U.S. Representative for Virginia's 3rd congressional district (since 1993)
Bobby Scott, a Democrat who has represented Virginia's 3rd congressional district since 1993 and is dean of the state's congressional delegation, faces Republican Edwin Rivera in 2026.
Edwin Rivera
Republican
Edwin Rivera, a Republican and U.S. Army veteran, faces Democratic incumbent Bobby Scott, who has held the seat since 1993, in the 2026 election for Virginia's 3rd congressional district.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi5.7K contracts
Virginia's 3rd District margin of victory
| Scott, 23+ pts | 95.5% implied | |
| Scott, 26+ pts | 97.5% | |
| Scott, 29+ pts | 96.9% | |
| Scott, 32+ pts | 95.5% | |
| Scott, 35+ pts | 89.8% | |
| Scott, 38+ pts | 85.5% | |
| Scott, 41+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Scott, 44+ pts | 64.0% | |
| Scott, 47+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Scott, 50+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Scott, 53+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Scott, 56+ pts | 6.8% | |
| Scott, 59+ pts | 3.8% | |
| Scott, 62+ pts | 3.0% |
Polymarket$33.7K traded
VA-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.2% implied | |
| Democrat 0-15% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 15-25% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 0.1% implied | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 2.3% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 14.5% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 20.1% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 22.4% | |
| Democrat 55%+ | 6.5% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$68.7K traded
Prices which party wins.
Bobby Scott: Counted · bid 93.8% / ask 97.0% · $921 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi986 contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Bobby Scott: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 99.7% · $634 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bobby Scott
If the House member sworn in for VA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Virginia
- Virginia SenateD98%
- VA-01 HouseD56%
- VA-02 HouseD87%
- VA-04 HouseD98%
- VA-05 HouseR72%
- VA-06 HouseR93%
- VA-07 HouseD97%
- VA-08 HouseD96%