US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for VA-02 House.
The viral moment comes just weeks after Kiggans once again put Trump ahead of her constituents in Hampton Roads by voting to continue the reckless cost-spiking war in Iran for the SIXTH time even as seven House…
KiggansVIRGINIA BEACH, Va. (WAVY): The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. joined Republican Rep.
KiggansCAPE CHARLES, Va.: Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (VA-02) welcomed U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Farm Service Agency (FSA) leadership to Virginia’s Eastern Shore for a tour of local aquaculture operations and a…
KiggansVIRGINIA BEACH, VA: Today, Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (VA-02) welcomed U.S. Department of Health & Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Elaine Luria (D) in Virginia’s 2nd District (VA-02) raised $2.7M in Q3 2026 (mid-July to Sept), while opponent Jen Kiggans raised $1.29M. By the end of September, Kiggans led in cash on hand with $1.95M vs.
LuriaElaine Luria (VA-02) leads in a tight race against Jen Kiggans. In a Virginia Beach roundtable on healthcare workforce shortages, Luria held the edge over Kiggans in a Christopher Newport University poll: Luria 46%,…
LuriaElaine Luria (VA-02) is in a tight U.S. House race in Virginia’s Second District against incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans.
LuriaIn Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District race, former Rep. Elaine Luria holds a narrow 3-point lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans according to a recent survey (46% Luria vs.
LuriaA Christopher Newport University Wason Center poll shows Democrat Elaine Luria leading Republican Jen Kiggans 46% to 43 in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, with a 4-point margin of error.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DElaine Luria | 86.5% | 87.5% | 85.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| RJen Kiggans | 13.0% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Elaine Luria, a Democrat and Navy veteran who represented Virginia's 2nd congressional district from 2019 to 2023, is her party's 2026 nominee in a rematch against Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans.
Jen Kiggans, a Republican Navy veteran and nurse practitioner who has represented Virginia's 2nd congressional district since 2023, faces Democrat Elaine Luria, the former representative she unseated in 2022, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Virginia's 2nd District margin of victory
| Kiggans, 1+ pts | 8.5% | |
| Kiggans, 4+ pts | 2.4% |
Virginia's 2nd District margin of victory
| Luria, 2+ pts | 81.0% | |
| Luria, 5+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Luria, 8+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Luria, 11+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Luria, 14+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Luria, 17+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Luria, 20+ pts | 7.7% |
VA-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 6%+ | 5.2% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 3.5% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 10.6% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 15.5% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 18.4% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 15.0% | |
| Democrat 12-15% | 13.5% | |
| Democrat 15-18% | 2.3% | |
| Democrat 18%+ | 5.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Elaine Luria: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $75.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Elaine Luria: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 86.0% · $70.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Elaine Luria
If the House member sworn in for VA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
