House · 3 November 2026

VA-09 House 2026

96.9% RMorgan Griffith leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.8%
Kalshi: 97.7%
Spread: 0.9 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

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Recent coverage for VA-09 House.

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Morgan Griffith, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMorgan Griffith	96.9%		96.8%	97.7%	0.9 pts	–
DJoy Powers	2.4%		2.4%	2.3%	0.1 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/va-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-va-09">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Joy Powers

Democratic

Joy Powers, a Democrat and farmer who was her party's 2025 nominee for the Virginia House of Delegates, faces Republican incumbent Morgan Griffith for Virginia's 9th congressional district in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Morgan Griffith

Republican U.S. Representative for Virginia's 9th congressional district (since 2011)

Morgan Griffith, a Republican who has represented Virginia's 9th congressional district since 2011 and was earlier majority leader of the Virginia House of Delegates, faces Democrat Joy Powers, a farmer, in 2026.

Born 1958 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi6.4K contracts

Virginia's 9th District margin of victory

Griffith, 21+ pts		95.3%
Griffith, 24+ pts		92.0%
Griffith, 27+ pts		83.5%
Griffith, 30+ pts		72.5%
Griffith, 33+ pts		57.5%
Griffith, 36+ pts		41.5%
Griffith, 39+ pts		26.5%
Griffith, 42+ pts		15.5%
Griffith, 45+ pts		8.8%
Griffith, 48+ pts		5.7%
Griffith, 51+ pts		5.8% implied
Griffith, 54+ pts		4.9% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.2K traded

VA-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.4%
Republican 0-15%		4.3%
Republican 15-25%		–
Republican 25-30%		15.4%
Republican 30-35%		28.5%
Republican 35-40%		22.0%
Republican 40-45%		11.8%
Republican 45-50%		6.5%
Republican 50-55%		3.3%
Republican 55%+		2.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$66.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Morgan Griffith: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.4% · $2.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi8.9K contracts traded