Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Washington: Initiative IL26-638 (transgender school sports access)

44.0% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™ · Kalshi onlyToss-up

Polymarket: 54.0%
Kalshi: 44.0%
Spread: –
24h: 0.0
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	44.0% Kalshi only		54.0%	44.0%	–	0.0

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/washington-initiative-il26-638-transgender-school-sports-access/embed.html" title="Washington: Initiative IL26-638 (transgender school sports access): live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/washington-initiative-il26-638-transgender-school-sports-access/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-washington-initiative-il26-638-transgender-school-sports-access">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/washington-initiative-il26-638-transgender-school-sports-access/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-washington-initiative-il26-638-transgender-school-sports-access"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/washington-initiative-il26-638-transgender-school-sports-access/card-landscape.png" alt="Washington: Initiative IL26-638 (transgender school sports access): odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Each venue's market

Polymarket$1.2K traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Not counted: bid and ask more than 10 pts apart · bid 38.0% / ask 70.0%

Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi820 contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 39.0% / ask 49.0% · $180 within 5 pts

If Initiative No. IL26-638 passes in Washington, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi