US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for WA-09 House.
The article profiles U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen (WA-2, not WA-9) and his strategic shift to backing Democratic candidates nationwide as he campaigns to defend his seat and help Democrats regain the House.
Topic: A Spokane debate for Washington’s 5th Congressional District between incumbent Rep.
Farmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.
Image 2: Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert and Democratic challenger Eileen Laubacher field questions from moderator Kyle Clark during a 4th Congressional District debate at 9News in Denver
The article reports that members of Congress are concerned about ICE purchasing the Tacoma detention center.
The provided page is a voter guide for Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District, not about Washington’s 9th District or a candidate named Doug Basler.
This article discusses FCC filings related to U.S. drone oversight, noting that a section 1709 list mentions Autel Robotics alongside DJI, but the FCC’s sealed Pentagon letters did not rely on those letters to justify…
The article reports that then-President Trump canceled a plan to livestream the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan.
SmithThe EBRSB (East Baton Rouge Parish School Board) spent a nine-hour meeting without confirming a permanent state superintendent.
SmithThe Inland Journal piece focuses on candidates for the Washington Supreme Court, featuring endorsements and political support.
SmithNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAdam Smith | 97.0% | 96.9% | 97.0% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RDoug Basler | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Adam Smith, a Democrat who has represented Washington's 9th congressional district in the U.S. House since 1997, faces Republican Doug Basler in the 2026 general election after both advanced from the top-two primary.
Doug Basler, a Republican perennial candidate, advanced from Washington's top-two primary to face Democratic incumbent Adam Smith in the 2026 general election for the 9th congressional district.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Washington's 9th District margin of victory
| Smith, 36+ pts | 93.1% | |
| Smith, 39+ pts | 88.6% | |
| Smith, 42+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Smith, 45+ pts | 73.0% | |
| Smith, 48+ pts | – | |
| Smith, 51+ pts | – | |
| Smith, 54+ pts | 36.0% | |
| Smith, 57+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Smith, 60+ pts | 13.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Adam Smith: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.7% · $876 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Adam Smith: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 98.8% · $688 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Adam Smith
If the House member sworn in for WA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
