House · 3 November 2026

WA-05 House 2026

85.4% RMichael Baumgartner leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 84.5%
Kalshi: 86.5%
Spread: 2.3 pts
24h: –
7 days: +2.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WA-05 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Baumgartner and Conroy clash over affordability in 5th District debate

Topic: A Spokane debate for Washington’s 5th Congressional District between incumbent Rep.

KXLY18h agoConroy Basler

Yesterday
Beavers and Evergreens: Key Oregon and Washington Races
Gov. Tina Kotek speaks at a gathering of business leaders and public officials at the Moda Center, on Monday, Dec. 11, 2023.

Daily Kos19h agoPerez Conroy Kotek
Vote Conroy for Congress - Whitman County Gazette
Carmela Conroy is advocated as a candidate for Washington’s 5th Congressional District (Eastern Washington).

wcgazette.comYesterdayConroy
Wednesday, Oct 14
High costs and the Iran war are on 5th Congressional District candidates’ minds
Summary tailored to your query: The provided material concerns Virginia’s 5th Congressional District (McGuire, Perriello, Harvey) and does not mention Arthur Purves or VA-11 House.

Virginia Public MediaYesterdayMcGuire Conroy Purves
Baumgartner and Conroy 5th District debate |
Carmela Conroy is the Democratic candidate in Washington’s 5th District (WA-05) featured in a local debate with her opponent, Baumgartner. The article covers the Oct.

KXLYYesterdayConroy

Michael Baumgartner, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMichael Baumgartner	85.4%		84.5%	86.5%	2.0 pts	–
DCarmela Conroy	14.9%		15.8%	13.5%	2.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-05/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wa-05">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Carmela Conroy

Democratic

Carmela Conroy, a Democrat, former U.S. consul general in Lahore and former chair of the Spokane County Democratic Party, faces Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner for Washington's 5th congressional district in 2026.

Born 1962

Full candidate profile →

Michael Baumgartner

Republican U.S. Representative for Washington's 5th congressional district (since 2025)

Michael Baumgartner, a Republican who has represented Washington's 5th congressional district since 2025 and earlier served as Spokane County treasurer and a state senator, faces Democrat Carmela Conroy in a 2026 rematch.

Born 1975 · Pullman, Washington

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.5K contracts

Washington's 5th District margin of victory

Baumgartner, 1+ pts		76.5%
Baumgartner, 2+ pts		72.0%
Baumgartner, 5+ pts		59.5%
Baumgartner, 8+ pts		41.5%
Baumgartner, 11+ pts		–
Baumgartner, 14+ pts		18.0%
Baumgartner, 17+ pts		9.3%
Baumgartner, 20+ pts		5.1%
Baumgartner, 23+ pts		3.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi615 contracts

Washington's 5th District margin of victory

Yes

16.0%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$62.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Michael Baumgartner: Counted · bid 84.0% / ask 85.0% · $48.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi86.1K contracts traded