US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for WA-02 House.
The article profiles U.S. Rep. Rick Larsen (WA-2, not WA-9) and his strategic shift to backing Democratic candidates nationwide as he campaigns to defend his seat and help Democrats regain the House.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRick Larsen | 96.0% | 95.3% | 97.2% | 1.9 pts | – | |
| REdwin Feller | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Edwin Feller, a Republican, is running for Washington's 2nd congressional district in 2026 and faces Democratic incumbent Rick Larsen after the two finished first and second in the top-two primary.
Rick Larsen, a Democrat who has represented Washington's 2nd congressional district since 2001 and is ranking member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, faces Republican Edwin Feller in his 2026 re-election race.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Washington's 2nd District margin of victory
| Larsen, 23+ pts | 88.6% | |
| Larsen, 26+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Larsen, 29+ pts | 65.0% | |
| Larsen, 32+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Larsen, 35+ pts | 42.0% | |
| Larsen, 38+ pts | 30.0% | |
| Larsen, 41+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Larsen, 44+ pts | 5.5% | |
| Larsen, 47+ pts | 4.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Rick Larsen: Counted · bid 94.2% / ask 96.4% · $555 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Rick Larsen: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 99.3% · $347 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Rick Larsen
If the House member sworn in for WA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
