nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

WA-03 House 2026

90.5% DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
89.5%
Kalshi
90.8%
Spread
1.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WA-03 House.

  1. John Braun calls out Marie Gluesenkamp Perez over attack ad

    John Braun (R-Centralia) clashed with Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania) in a District 3 debate over her attack ad tying Braun to a deadly incident at his Braun Northwest plant.

    KTTHBraun
  2. Beavers and Evergreens: Key Oregon and Washington Races

    Gov. Tina Kotek speaks at a gathering of business leaders and public officials at the Moda Center, on Monday, Dec. 11, 2023.

    Daily KosPerezConroyKotek
  3. Barrett, Gluesenkamp Perez Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Crack Down on Elder Fraud

    Address:1232 Longworth House Office Building Washington, DC 20515

    barrett.house.govOfficialPerez
  4. Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez Introduces Legislation to Target Scammers who Prey on Older Americans
    gluesenkampperez.house.govOfficialPerez
  5. Washington congressional race blankets Oregon airwaves

    John Braun is the Republican candidate in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District race against incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.

    theeagle.newsBraun
More coverage 2
  1. Gluesenkamp Pérez y Braun, en reñida contienda por distrito clave del suroeste de Washington, según encuesta de OPB

    John Braun en WA-03 (Tercer Distrito de Washington): Las encuestas de DHM Research para OPB muestran una contienda extremadamente reñida entre Braun (republicano) y la actual congresista Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez…

    Oregon Public BroadcastingBraun
  2. Gluesenkamp Perez, Braun split on initiative to ban trans athletes from girls sports

    John Braun (WA-03) advocates banning transgender athletes from girls’ sports. In the campaign against incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Braun supports measures that would prohibit trans girls from competing in girls’…

    KGWBraun

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez 90.5% 89.5% 90.8% 1.3 pts –
RJohn Braun 9.1% 8.5% 9.2% 0.7 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

John Braun

John Braun

Republican Member of the Washington State Senate from the 20th district (since 2013)

John Braun, a Republican who is minority leader of the Washington Senate and represents the 20th legislative district, faces Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez for Washington's 3rd congressional district in 2026.

Born 1967 · Columbus, Ohio
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Democratic U.S. Representative for Washington's 3rd congressional district (since 2023)

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat who has represented Washington's 3rd congressional district since 2023 and co-chairs the Blue Dog Coalition, faces Republican John Braun, minority leader of the Washington Senate, in 2026.

Born 1988 · Harris County, Texas

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi400 contracts

Washington's 3rd District margin of victory

Braun, 2+ pts
5.4%
Braun, 5+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi2.6K contracts

Washington's 3rd District margin of victory

Perez, 1+ pts
88.6%
Perez, 4+ pts
75.5%
Perez, 7+ pts
59.5%
Perez, 10+ pts
43.0%
Perez, 13+ pts
26.0%
Perez, 16+ pts
11.4%
Perez, 19+ pts
5.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$55.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 90.0% · $18.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi179.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez: Counted · bid 90.5% / ask 91.1% · $67.6K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

If the House member sworn in for WA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Washington

  1. WA-01 HouseD97%
  2. WA-02 HouseD96%
  3. WA-04 HouseR93%
  4. WA-05 HouseR85%
  5. WA-06 HouseD98%
  6. WA-07 HouseD98%
  7. WA-08 HouseD97%
  8. WA-09 HouseD97%