nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

WA-04 House 2026

92.6% RAmanda McKinney leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
92.5%
Kalshi
92.9%
Spread
0.4 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WA-04 House.

  1. Here's where Amanda McKinney and John Duresky stand on 5 hot-topic issues | Elections

    The Yakima Herald article outlines the positions of Amanda McKinney and John Duresky on five hot-topic issues in the WA-04 House race.

    Yakima Herald-RepublicMcKinney
  2. Eastmont preps for their rivalry matchup against Wenatchee | News

    The article reports on Eastmont High School’s preparation for its rivalry game against Wenatchee, written by Nathan Eshelman for NCW Life News.

    ncwlife.comDureskyMcKinney
  3. Midterms 2026: «Si je croise Trump, je lui mets une droite»

    John Duresky is a candidate in Washington's 4th Congressional District (WA-04). He is positioned as a potential challenger to the incumbent Republican in what is described as the most conservative district in the state.

    watson.chDuresky
  4. Adam Musgrove challenges Tyler Caille for Douglas County sheriff | Elections

    John Duresky is a Democratic candidate campaigning for the U.S. House in Washington's 4th Congressional District (WA-04).

    Wenatchee WorldDuresky
  5. New head of Montessori School of Yakima talks about plans for permanent campus | Education

    Based on the article, there is no information about Amanda McKinney or WA-04 House.

    Yakima Herald-RepublicMcKinney
More coverage 1
  1. Domestic violence coalition speaker says training is vital when it comes to survivor interviews | Local

    The provided article from Yakima Herald covers a local topic on domestic violence training for survivor interviews, featuring a coalition speaker who emphasizes that proper training is vital for handling survivor…

    Yakima Herald-RepublicMcKinney

Amanda McKinney, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAmanda McKinney 92.6% 92.5% 92.9% 0.4 pts –
DJohn Duresky 6.5% 6.5% 6.2% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-04/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wa-04">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Amanda McKinney

Republican Yakima County Commissioner (since 2020)

Amanda McKinney, a Republican who has served as a Yakima County commissioner since 2020, faces Democrat John Duresky, a retired Air Force major, for Washington's open 4th congressional district seat in 2026.

John Duresky

Democratic

John Duresky, a Democrat, combat veteran and retired Air Force major, faces Republican Yakima County commissioner Amanda McKinney for Washington's open 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi13 contracts

Washington's 4th District margin of victory

McKinney, 2+ pts
87.8%
McKinney, 5+ pts
–
McKinney, 8+ pts
–
McKinney, 11+ pts
–
McKinney, 14+ pts
38.0%
McKinney, 17+ pts
26.0%
McKinney, 20+ pts
14.1%
McKinney, 23+ pts
4.0%
McKinney, 26+ pts
3.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$63.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Amanda McKinney: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 94.0% · $6.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi32.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Amanda McKinney: Counted · bid 92.8% / ask 93.0% · $2.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Amanda McKinney

If the House member sworn in for WA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Washington

  1. WA-01 HouseD97%
  2. WA-02 HouseD96%
  3. WA-03 HouseD91%
  4. WA-05 HouseR85%
  5. WA-06 HouseD98%
  6. WA-07 HouseD98%
  7. WA-08 HouseD97%
  8. WA-09 HouseD97%