nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

WA-08 House 2026

97.2% DKim Schrier leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.5%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
0.5 pts
24h
–
7 days
0.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WA-08 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian – Armenian Directory & News

    The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.

    armenianclub.comDeanMcBathSmuckerUnderwoodGoodenSchrierSelfCammackHarderMorelleJacksonOlszewskiRutherfordJoyce
  2. The Essential Need for the Ensuring Lasting Smiles Act

    The article argues for the Essential Need for the Ensuring Lasting Smiles Act (ELSA), highlighting broad bipartisan support from over 70 professional societies and lawmakers, including Representatives Kim Schrier, M.D.

    unionpolicywire.comSchrier
  3. Push for Ensuring Lasting Smiles Act to Protect Families

    The Relay News discusses the Push for Ensuring Lasting Smiles Act (ELSA), which has broad bipartisan support and aims to protect families by ensuring coverage for medically necessary, non-cosmetic dental procedures that…

    therelaynews.comSchrier

Kim Schrier, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DKim Schrier 97.2% 97.5% 97.0% 0.5 pts –
RSpencer Meline 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wa-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wa-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Kim Schrier

Kim Schrier

Democratic U.S. Representative for Washington's 8th congressional district (since 2019)

Kim Schrier, a Democrat and pediatrician who has represented Washington's 8th congressional district since 2019, faces Republican small business owner Spencer Meline in her 2026 bid for re-election.

Born 1968 · Los Angeles, California

Spencer Meline

Republican

Spencer Meline, a Republican small business owner, faces Democratic incumbent Kim Schrier for Washington's 8th congressional district after finishing second in the 2026 top-two primary.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi405 contracts

Washington's 8th District margin of victory

Schrier, 5+ pts
92.5%
Schrier, 8+ pts
84.0%
Schrier, 11+ pts
77.5%
Schrier, 14+ pts
65.0%
Schrier, 17+ pts
53.0%
Schrier, 20+ pts
–
Schrier, 23+ pts
27.0%
Schrier, 26+ pts
13.2%
Schrier, 29+ pts
6.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$28.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Kim Schrier: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 98.6% · $462 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.5K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Kim Schrier: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 99.0% · $779 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Kim Schrier

If the House member sworn in for WA-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Washington

  1. WA-01 HouseD97%
  2. WA-02 HouseD96%
  3. WA-03 HouseD91%
  4. WA-04 HouseR93%
  5. WA-05 HouseR85%
  6. WA-06 HouseD98%
  7. WA-07 HouseD98%
  8. WA-09 HouseD97%