nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

WA-10 House 2026

97.7% DMarilyn Strickland leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.6%
Kalshi
97.8%
Spread
0.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WA-10 House.

Marilyn Strickland, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DMarilyn Strickland 97.7% 97.6% 97.8% 0.2 pts –
RChris Chung 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Chris Chung

Republican

Chris Chung, a Republican who was a Democratic candidate for insurance commissioner in 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Marilyn Strickland in the 2026 general election for Washington's 10th congressional district.

Marilyn Strickland

Marilyn Strickland

Democratic U.S. Representative for Washington's 10th congressional district (since 2021)

Marilyn Strickland, a Democrat who has represented Washington's 10th congressional district since 2021 and was previously mayor of Tacoma, faces Republican Chris Chung in the 2026 general election after the top-two primary.

Born 1962 · Seoul, South Korea

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi0 contracts

Washington's 10th District margin of victory

Strickland, 15+ pts
91.8%
Strickland, 18+ pts
84.0%
Strickland, 21+ pts
–
Strickland, 24+ pts
67.0%
Strickland, 27+ pts
59.0%
Strickland, 30+ pts
–
Strickland, 33+ pts
–
Strickland, 36+ pts
5.5%
Strickland, 39+ pts
4.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$37.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Marilyn Strickland: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 99.1% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Marilyn Strickland: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 99.5% · $1.7K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Marilyn Strickland

If the House member sworn in for WA-10 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Washington

  1. WA-01 HouseD97%
  2. WA-02 HouseD96%
  3. WA-03 HouseD91%
  4. WA-04 HouseR93%
  5. WA-05 HouseR85%
  6. WA-06 HouseD98%
  7. WA-07 HouseD98%
  8. WA-08 HouseD97%