House · 3 November 2026

WA-01 House 2026

97.4% DSuzan DelBene leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.4%
Kalshi: 97.5%
Spread: 0.8 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.9
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Suzan DelBene, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSuzan DelBene	97.4%		97.4%	97.5%	0.1 pts	–
RMary Silva	2.1%		2.4%	1.6%	0.8 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mary Silva

Republican

Mary Silva, a Republican who ran for Washington's 1st congressional district in 2024, is challenging Democratic incumbent Suzan DelBene for the seat in the general election on November 3, 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Suzan DelBene

Democratic U.S. Representative for Washington's 1st congressional district (since 2012)

Suzan DelBene, a Democrat who has represented Washington's 1st congressional district since 2012 and chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, faces Republican Mary Silva in her 2026 bid for re-election.

Born 1962 · Selma, Alabama

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi200 contracts

Washington's 1st District margin of victory

DelBene, 26+ pts		90.7%
DelBene, 29+ pts		80.5%
DelBene, 32+ pts		72.0%
DelBene, 35+ pts		–
DelBene, 38+ pts		53.0%
DelBene, 41+ pts		37.0%
DelBene, 44+ pts		21.0%
DelBene, 47+ pts		5.5%
DelBene, 50+ pts		4.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$46.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Suzan DelBene: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 98.3% · $349 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.7K contracts traded