nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

ME-01 House 2026

96.5% DChellie Pingree leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.0%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
1.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for ME-01 House.

  1. Op-Ed: Mainers are in for a harsh winter: thanks to Republicans

    Chellie Pingree argues that Maine residents will face a difficult winter due to Republican policies.

    pingree.house.govOfficialPingree
  2. Fundraising Update: Representative Chellie Pingree just disclosed $101.4K of new fundraising

    Chellie Pingree (ME-01) – Fundraising Update: The article reports that Representative Chellie Pingree disclosed $101,400 in new fundraising.

    Quiver QuantitativePingree
  3. What’s on the ballot in Scarborough?

    Chellie Pingree is the Democratic candidate for Maine’s 1st Congressional District (ME-01) and will be facing Republican Ronald Russell in the upcoming election.

    Portland Press-HeraldPingree
  4. Pingree Joins Bipartisan Call to Increase Home Heating Assistance Funding

    Chellie Pingree advocates to increase LIHEAP funding. She joined a bipartisan group (73 members) urging the House Appropriations Committee to provide an additional $3 billion in emergency supplemental appropriations for…

    pingree.house.govOfficialPingree

Chellie Pingree, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DChellie Pingree 96.5% 96.0% 97.0% 0.9 pts –
RRonald Russell 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Chellie Pingree

Chellie Pingree

Democratic U.S. Representative for Maine's 1st congressional district (since 2009)

Chellie Pingree, a Democrat who has represented Maine's 1st congressional district since 2009, seeks a tenth term in 2026 against Republican Ronald Russell, a defense contractor and the district's 2024 Republican nominee.

Born 1955 · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Ronald Russell

Republican

Ronald Russell, a Republican defense contractor who was his party's 2024 nominee in Maine's 1st congressional district, is again the Republican nominee in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Chellie Pingree.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.9K contracts

Maine's 1st District margin of victory

Pingree, 17+ pts
91.5%
Pingree, 20+ pts
82.5%
Pingree, 23+ pts
70.5%
Pingree, 26+ pts
57.0%
Pingree, 29+ pts
–
Pingree, 32+ pts
27.0%
Pingree, 35+ pts
27.5%
Pingree, 38+ pts
7.2%
Pingree, 41+ pts
7.9%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$47.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Chellie Pingree: Counted · bid 94.2% / ask 97.9% · $1.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Chellie Pingree: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 98.0% · $1.5K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Chellie Pingree

If the House member sworn in for ME-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Maine

  1. Maine SenateD57%
  2. Maine GovernorD94%
  3. ME-02 HouseR63%