House · 3 November 2026

ME-02 House 2026

63.2% RPaul LePage leads TruthIndex™Lean R

Polymarket: 62.5%
Kalshi: 64.5%
Spread: 2.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −1.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Paul LePage, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RPaul LePage	63.2%		62.5%	64.5%	2.0 pts	–
DMatthew Dunlap	36.9%		37.5%	35.5%	2.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Matthew Dunlap

Democratic State Auditor of Maine (since 2022)

Matthew Dunlap, a Democrat who has served as Maine state auditor since 2022 and was previously secretary of state, is his party's nominee for the open 2nd district seat in 2026 against Republican Paul LePage.

Born 1964 · Bar Harbor, Maine

Full candidate profile →

Paul LePage

Republican

Paul LePage, a Republican who served as governor of Maine from 2011 to 2019, is his party's nominee for the open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Matthew Dunlap, the state auditor.

Born 1948 · Lewiston, Maine

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi5.7K contracts

Maine's 2nd District margin of victory

LePage, 1+ pts		54.5%
LePage, 3+ pts		44.0%
LePage, 6+ pts		28.5%
LePage, 9+ pts		22.0%
LePage, 12+ pts		11.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi4.6K contracts

Maine's 2nd District margin of victory

Dunlap, 3+ pts		26.0%
Dunlap, 6+ pts		15.5%
Dunlap, 9+ pts		7.8%
Dunlap, 12+ pts		4.2%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$30.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Paul LePage: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $59.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi138.2K contracts traded